最近幾周，汽油和其他餾分燃料價格的上漲速度超過了上游原油基準價格

汽油和其他餾分油價格上漲背后的一個關鍵問題是，在需求居高不下的情況下，煉油廠利用率卻在下降

燃料價格的任何上漲都將受到美聯儲和其他國家央行的密切關注，因為燃料價格可能對通脹壓力產生重大影響

據油價網2023年8月4日報道，最近幾周，汽油和其他餾分燃料價格的上漲速度快于上游原油基準價格。由于主要經濟體通脹放緩，世界各國央行加息周期似乎接近尾聲，能源市場的反彈可能引發擔憂。我們將探討最近汽油和其他餾分油市場價格上漲背后的主要原因，以及這種情況將如何進一步發展。

原油基準價格上漲

當觀察餾分油價格的變化時，最重要的驅動因素是上游產品的成本。從4月底到7月初，布倫特原油價格在71美元至79美元的區間內交易了兩個多月，自6月最后一周以來一直在上漲，并在7月第一周突破了這個價格區間。在過去的一周里，布倫特原油價格收盤每桶高達85美元，并在8月2日星期三以略高于83美元的價格結算。WTI價格的情況與此類似，該基準價格上周每桶曾短暫攀升至80美元上方，目前僅略低于80美元。

原油價格的上漲源于歐佩克+的減產，更具體地說是沙特阿拉伯等減產。今年6月，沙特阿拉伯宣布將在接下來的一個月每天再減產100萬桶。這一減產措施隨后延長至8月份，最近有猜測稱沙特阿拉伯9月份也將繼續減產。與此同時，當沙特阿拉伯在6月份首次宣布自愿減產時，它并沒有像許多人預期的那樣起到提振油價的作用。然而，隨著時間的推移，原油產量枯竭的現實和減產的連續延長最終推動了油價的上漲。

由于油價漲出其交易區間，交易活動加劇了油價上漲。正如路透社的約翰·肯普所指出的那樣，由于原油價格上漲，投資者紛紛回補空頭頭寸，這進一步推動了油價上漲走勢。盡管與去年相比，今年的原油市場相當低迷，但許多看漲的投資者認為，7月初的原油價格區間突破將引發樂觀情緒，認為原油價格今年可能會回升至每桶90美元以上，甚至更高。

煉油廠利用率下降

汽油和其他餾分油價格上漲背后的另一個關鍵問題是，在需求居高不下的情況下，煉油廠利用率有所下降。據彭博社報道，今年歐洲的汽油需求恢復得很好，“法國、德國、西班牙和意大利的汽油消費量都出現了同比增長”。與此同時，美國正處于“駕駛季節”，即美國陣亡將士紀念日和勞動節周末之間的夏季，汽油需求在此期間達到年度峰值。

在高需求的背景下，最近有幾個問題影響了煉油廠的利用率。在歐洲，殼牌公司由于泄漏問題宣布于6月初暫時關閉佩尼斯煉油廠，但沒有提供有關問題原因或關閉時間的進一步信息。位于鹿特丹港的佩尼斯煉油廠是歐洲最大的煉油廠，每天可加工大約40萬桶原油。在大西洋彼岸，埃克森美孚公司不得不在7月底關閉其美國第五大煉油廠巴吞魯日煉油廠，進行意外維修，這可能會影響到該煉油廠整個夏天的剩余時間。

熱浪影響煉油能力

除了特定煉油廠的問題外，最近席卷美國南部大部分地區的熱浪也影響了該地區的煉油能力。極端高溫天氣導致煉油廠減少原油加工量，以避免損壞任何設備。煉油廠問題的積累效應，以及隨著夏季的過去，原油加工量的自然放緩，意味著美國煉油廠的利用率從6月的第一周到7月底下降了3.1%。去年同期下降2%，而2019年僅下降0.2%。

未來，燃料價格的任何上漲都將受到美聯儲和其他國家央行的密切關注，因為燃料價格可能對通脹壓力產生重大影響。此外，在過去幾天里，這些市場的上行軌跡似乎已經有所放緩。這些產品的庫存緊張，以及貿易商的頭寸和煉油廠的利用率，將是未來幾個月原油價格發展的關鍵指標。

李峻 譯自 油價網

原文如下： 

Distillate Prices Soar On The Back Of Refinery Issues And Expensive Crude

·     The price of gasoline and other distillate fuels have rallied in recent weeks at a faster pace than the upstream crude oil benchmark.

·     A key issue behind prices for gasoline and other distillates rising has been a reduction in refining utilization while demand has remained high.

·     Any rise in fuel prices will be watched closely by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as fuel prices can have large impacts on inflationary pressure.

The price of gasoline and other distillate fuels have rallied in recent weeks at a faster pace than the upstream crude oil benchmarks. At a time when central banks around the world appear to be nearing the end of their respective cycles of interest rate increases as inflation slows in major economies, a rally in energy markets could cause concern. In this week’s blog, we will look at the primary causes behind the recent price rises in gasoline and other distillate markets and how this situation may develop further.

Crude Oil Benchmarks on Increase

When looking at the changing prices of distillates, the most important driver is the costs of the upstream products. Having spent over two months, from late April to early July, trading within a range from $71 to $79, Brent crude oil prices have been on the rise since the last week of June and broke out of their range in the first week of July. In the past week, prices have closed as high as $85 and settled at just over $83 on Wednesday 2nd August. The story for WTI prices has been similar, with the benchmark having briefly climbed above the $80 mark last week and currently sitting just below it.

The increase in crude oil prices stems from the production cuts made by OPEC+, and more specifically by Saudi Arabia etc.. In June, Saudi Arabia announced it would be reducing production by 1 million barrels per day for the following month. This cut was subsequently extended for August, and more recently there has been speculation that it will continue for September as well. Meanwhile, when Saudi Arabia first announced its voluntary production cuts in June, it did not have the price-lifting effect that would have been expected by many. However as time has passed, the reality of the depleted production and consecutive extensions of the production cut have eventually driven oil prices upwards.

As oil prices rose out of their trading range, the price rise has been compounded by trading activity. As noted by John Kemp for Reuters, investors rushed to cover their short positions as prices rose, which further fuels the upward movement. While crude oil markets have been rather subdued this year in comparison to 2022, there are many bullish investors for whom the range-break of early July will spark optimism that crude price may yet climb back above the $90 mark and beyond this year.

Refineries Run Into Issues

Another key issue behind prices for gasoline and other distillates rising has been a reduction in refining utilization while demand has remained high. As reported by Bloomberg, gasoline demand in Europe has recovered well this year “with France, Germany, Spain and Italy all posting year-on-year increases in consumption.” The United States, meanwhile, is in the middle of its ‘driving season’, the summer months between Memorial Day and Labor Day weekends during which gasoline demand reaches its annual peak.

Amid the high levels of demand, there have been several issues impacting refinery utilization recently. In Europe, Shell announced it would be temporarily closing its Pernis refinery plant in early June due to a leak, but provided no further information regarding the cause of the issue or the duration of the closure. Pernis, located in Rotterdam, is Europe’s largest refinery site and is capable of processing around 400,000 barrels per day. Across the Atlantic, Exxon Mobil had to close its Baton Rouge refinery site, the fifth largest in the US, in late July for unexpected repairs which may impact the plant for the rest of the summer.

Alongside issues at specific refineries, the recent heatwave that has scorched much of the southern United States has also impacted the region’s refining capability. Extremely high temperatures cause refineries to reduce processing in order to avoid damaging any equipment. The cumulative effect of the refinery issues, as well as a natural slowing of processing as the summer passes by, has meant that the refinery utilization rate in the US has dropped by 3.1% from the first week of June to the end of July. Over the same period in 2022 it declined by 2%, while in 2019 it only dropped by 0.2%.

Going forward, any rise in fuel prices will be watched closely by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as fuel prices can have large impacts on inflationary pressure. Furthermore, in the past few days there appears to have already been a softening of the upward trajectory these markets were taking. Tight inventories across these products, alongside traders positions and refinery utilization rates, will be key indicators for the price development in the coming months.