據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年7月26日?qǐng)?bào)道，沙特預(yù)計(jì)將把其自愿每天再削減100萬(wàn)桶原油供應(yīng)的協(xié)議延長(zhǎng)至9月份，以支持油價(jià)反彈。這個(gè)歐佩克最大產(chǎn)油國(guó)7月宣布進(jìn)一步減產(chǎn)，以在需求疲軟的情況下支撐更高的油價(jià)。彭博新聞社日前進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查的6名參與者預(yù)測(cè)，沙特將逐步減少額外減產(chǎn)，在9月份停止25萬(wàn)至50萬(wàn)桶/天的減產(chǎn)。

咨詢公司FGE短期全球石油服務(wù)主管詹姆斯·戴維斯告訴彭博新聞社記者：“有充分的證據(jù)表明沙特將在9月份開(kāi)始取消減產(chǎn)。市場(chǎng)迫切需要這些原油，煉油商們正爭(zhēng)相獲得這些原油。”

減產(chǎn)措施似乎奏效了，油價(jià)在過(guò)去一個(gè)月上漲了大約12%，至每桶83美元左右。不過(guò)，目前的油價(jià)對(duì)沙特來(lái)說(shuō)可能太低了。

倫敦經(jīng)紀(jì)公司PVM Oil Associates Ltd.的分析師Tamas Varga告訴彭博新聞社記者：“沙特希望看到油價(jià)長(zhǎng)期上漲至每桶90美元，并希望看到亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)可能的改善，從而開(kāi)始考慮將每天削減的100萬(wàn)桶原油重新投入市場(chǎng)。”

盡管如此，全球原油市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將逐漸收緊，隨著時(shí)間的推移這應(yīng)該會(huì)提振油價(jià)。總部位于巴黎的IEA預(yù)測(cè)，今年下半年全球原油短缺將達(dá)到170萬(wàn)桶/天左右。渣打銀行大宗商品專家預(yù)測(cè)，8月份全球原油市場(chǎng)將出現(xiàn)281萬(wàn)桶/天的供應(yīng)缺口；9月份為243萬(wàn)桶/天，11月和12月超過(guò)200萬(wàn)桶/天。分析師們還預(yù)測(cè)，到今年年底前，全球原油庫(kù)存將減少3.1億桶，2024年第一季度將再減少9400萬(wàn)桶，從而推高油價(jià)。據(jù)專家預(yù)測(cè)，布倫特原油價(jià)格將在今年第四季度攀升至93美元/桶。

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Saudi Arabia Likely To Extend Oil Production Cuts

Saudi Arabia is expected to prolong its voluntary 1 million-barrel oil supply cut into September as it seeks to support the rebound in oil prices. The top OPEC producer introduced the additional cutback this month in a bid to support higher oil prices amid faltering demand. Six participants in a Bloomberg survey have predicted the Saudis will taper off their extra cut by restoring 250,000-500,000 barrels a day of halted production in September. 

“There’s ample evidence for Saudi Arabia to start unwinding the cuts in September. The market is screaming out for these barrels, and refiners are scrambling to get hold of them,”James Davis, director of short-term global oil services at consultants FGE, has told Bloomberg

The production cuts appear to have worked, with oil prices climbing about 12% in the past month to about $83 a barrel. Still, current oil prices might be too low for Saudi Arabia since it needs $100-a-barrel crude to balance its books.

“The kingdom will want to see a protracted rise toward $90 a barrel and possibly improvement in Asia economic data to start considering putting the 1 million barrels per day back into the market,” Tamas Varga, an analyst at brokers PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London, has told Bloomberg.

Nevertheless, oil markets are expected to gradually tighten, which should boost prices as the months roll on. The International Energy Agency(IEA) in Paris has predicted an oil shortage of about 1.7 million barrels a day during the second half of the year. Commodity experts at Standard Chartered have predicted that global oil markets will register a supply deficit of 2.81 million barrels per day in August; 2.43mb/d in September and more than 2mb/d in November and December. The analysts have also projected that global inventories will fall by 310mb by end-2023 and another 94mb in the first quarter of 2024 thus pushing oil prices higher. According to the experts, Brent prices will climb to $93/bbl in the fourth quarter.