據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井地帶網(wǎng)站6月23日?qǐng)?bào)道，在發(fā)給鉆機(jī)地帶網(wǎng)站的一份新報(bào)告中，惠譽(yù)解決方案公司BMI的分析師概述了到2050年油氣行業(yè)的幾大趨勢(shì)。

分析師們?cè)趫?bào)告中強(qiáng)調(diào)，石油需求減少是大趨勢(shì)之一，并補(bǔ)充稱，全球油氣需求將面臨越來越大的壓力，隨著能源轉(zhuǎn)型加速迫使行業(yè)整合，也在促進(jìn)能源效率的提高和燃料的廣泛轉(zhuǎn)換。

分析師在報(bào)告中指出，迄今為止，需求減少的大部分集中在公路運(yùn)輸和電力等較容易減少的行業(yè)，而且主要集中在成熟市場(chǎng)。

他們補(bǔ)充道，然而，如果要實(shí)現(xiàn)《巴黎協(xié)定》的目標(biāo)，全球所有能源部門和市場(chǎng)都需要更深入的脫碳戰(zhàn)略。

BMI分析師在報(bào)告中指出，根據(jù)他們的數(shù)據(jù)，成熟市場(chǎng)的石油消費(fèi)將從2025年開始永久性下降，而新興市場(chǎng)(EM)的峰值將至少滯后10年，考慮到在滿足快速增長(zhǎng)消費(fèi)的同時(shí)，要實(shí)現(xiàn)能源結(jié)構(gòu)的有意義轉(zhuǎn)變面臨更大的困難。

分析師在報(bào)告中表示，潛在能源結(jié)構(gòu)的差異以及廣泛變化的經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口和政策前景將導(dǎo)致不同地區(qū)在隨后的需求下跌速度不同，市場(chǎng)在不同的時(shí)間段達(dá)到峰值。

他們補(bǔ)充道，在未來幾十年內(nèi)，非洲、中東和中東歐的需求將最持久，而西歐、北美和亞洲的需求將下降最快。

分析師在報(bào)告中表示，不同燃料組合的需求軌跡也會(huì)有所不同。

他們表示，隨著燃料效率要求的提高和電動(dòng)汽車等替代品的普及，道路運(yùn)輸燃料最容易受到能源轉(zhuǎn)型的影響，而航空和海洋燃料雖然更難替代，但隨著替代品在未來十年開始進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)，到2050年燃料需求也將遭受巨大損失。

他們補(bǔ)充道，相比之下，那些為石化和重工業(yè)部門服務(wù)的燃料將持續(xù)更長(zhǎng)的時(shí)間，因?yàn)楂@得可行替代品的途徑并不成熟。

石油供應(yīng)

報(bào)告中概述的另一個(gè)大趨勢(shì)是，隨著全球政策導(dǎo)向和需求改變企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略，石油供應(yīng)將繼續(xù)下降。

分析師在報(bào)告中表示，鑒于長(zhǎng)期需求下降的預(yù)期，碳?xì)浠衔镩L(zhǎng)期供應(yīng)前景疲軟，這將導(dǎo)致石油和天然氣生產(chǎn)商在發(fā)展成為綜合能源公司時(shí)，對(duì)上游行業(yè)的投資持續(xù)不足。

他們補(bǔ)充道，這種需求下降的新趨勢(shì)將導(dǎo)致上游投資減少，以通過限制市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)的形式來維持油價(jià)和利潤(rùn)。

這一轉(zhuǎn)變主要原因是上游公司應(yīng)對(duì)包括油氣在內(nèi)高碳排放行業(yè)的減排要求所實(shí)施的戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)變，以及長(zhǎng)期需求前景減弱所推動(dòng)，這就抑制了更高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的長(zhǎng)期投資，尤其是那些前期開發(fā)成本高的投資。

BMI分析師在報(bào)告中指出，越來越嚴(yán)格的環(huán)境法規(guī)和政府對(duì)化石燃料行業(yè)強(qiáng)硬立場(chǎng)將繼續(xù)威脅未來的綠地石油和天然氣項(xiàng)目，并加速?gòu)奶細(xì)浠衔锿顿Y轉(zhuǎn)向低碳。

分析師表示，“從財(cái)務(wù)角度來看，我們注意到最近的趨勢(shì)是，能源公司被征收暴利稅，監(jiān)管不斷加強(qiáng)，從而抑制了能源公司對(duì)未來勘探和生產(chǎn)的大量投入”。并補(bǔ)充道，“我們預(yù)計(jì)勘探和生產(chǎn)公司將以減少上游和下游項(xiàng)目的增長(zhǎng)為代價(jià)，繼續(xù)提高用于低碳努力(減少排放，碳信用額度抵消)資本支出分配”。

許多生產(chǎn)商的投資不足將導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)放緩，尤其是對(duì)于在上游項(xiàng)目組合中面臨日益增加成熟油田份額的生產(chǎn)商來說。

“我們強(qiáng)調(diào)，美國(guó)多產(chǎn)的頁(yè)巖資產(chǎn)基礎(chǔ)將趨于成熟，隨著對(duì)新增長(zhǎng)的投資放緩，產(chǎn)量將趨于平穩(wěn)或下降。”

歐佩克的作用

歐佩克的再次崛起是報(bào)告中提到的另一個(gè)大趨勢(shì)。

BMI分析師在報(bào)告中表示，從化石燃料向低排放替代品過渡的承諾將見證歐佩克在全球市場(chǎng)中力量的轉(zhuǎn)變和演變。

隨著需求趨勢(shì)下降，供應(yīng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)程度促使人們關(guān)注效率、成本和排放強(qiáng)度，石油生產(chǎn)商將變得更加集中。

沙特阿拉伯已經(jīng)加倍努力成為“最后的生產(chǎn)國(guó)”，其目標(biāo)是到2027年將原油產(chǎn)能從目前的每天1200萬(wàn)桶提高到每天1300萬(wàn)桶，并且到2030年將天然氣產(chǎn)量提高50%。

BMI分析師在報(bào)告中表示，許多歐佩克和歐佩克+生產(chǎn)國(guó)已經(jīng)擁有低成本的業(yè)務(wù)，隨之而來的是歐佩克在石油供應(yīng)中的份額將增長(zhǎng)。

分析師們強(qiáng)調(diào)，再加上對(duì)石油需求下降的預(yù)期，雖然這將導(dǎo)致總市場(chǎng)份額的增加，但“蛋糕”將變小。

展望歐佩克未來的政策，BMI分析師指出，歐佩克將推進(jìn)其戰(zhàn)略從短期價(jià)格監(jiān)管轉(zhuǎn)向長(zhǎng)期政策影響。

分析人士表示，這些政策驅(qū)動(dòng)的行動(dòng)預(yù)計(jì)將主要由目前控制大部分石油生產(chǎn)的海灣合作委員會(huì)主要國(guó)家制定。

他們補(bǔ)充稱，“我們確實(shí)預(yù)計(jì)一些產(chǎn)油國(guó)緊張局勢(shì)將持續(xù)下去，國(guó)家利益將超過歐佩克的凝聚力，但這只會(huì)發(fā)生在非核心產(chǎn)油國(guó)身上。因此，該組織的構(gòu)成可能會(huì)繼續(xù)發(fā)生變化，盡管最終控制權(quán)將掌握在目前的頂級(jí)生產(chǎn)商手中”。

分析人士還表示，該組織的重點(diǎn)將是更廣泛地轉(zhuǎn)向氣候適應(yīng)和減排。

他們稱，這種對(duì)氣候變化技術(shù)解決方案（碳捕獲、藍(lán)氫/氨等）的重視增加了碳排放目標(biāo)無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)橛邢薜馁Y金和時(shí)間被轉(zhuǎn)移到石油和天然氣保護(hù)工作上。

英國(guó)石油公司（bp）展望

早在今年1月，英國(guó)石油公司就發(fā)布了《bp2023年能源展望》，該公司表示，該展望考慮了最近全球能源供應(yīng)的中斷以及對(duì)全球價(jià)格的相關(guān)影響，并探討了這將如何影響到2050年的能源轉(zhuǎn)型。

在其網(wǎng)站上專門的能源展望部分，該公司概述了該報(bào)告的幾個(gè)“核心理念”。它強(qiáng)調(diào)石油需求的下降，并且“隨著車輛效率的提高和道路車輛電氣化的加速，道路運(yùn)輸?shù)氖褂昧肯陆怠薄?/p>

盡管如此，未來的15到20年，石油仍將繼續(xù)在全球能源系統(tǒng)中發(fā)揮重要作用。

概述額度另一個(gè)核心理念是，“在風(fēng)電和太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電日益占主導(dǎo)地位的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下”，全球電力系統(tǒng)將脫碳。

該公司指出，風(fēng)電和太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電占據(jù)了發(fā)電增長(zhǎng)的全部或大部分份額并得益于持續(xù)的成本競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，這些高份額的可變能源整合到電力系統(tǒng)中的能力將不斷增強(qiáng)。風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能的增長(zhǎng)需要大幅加快融資和新產(chǎn)能建設(shè)。

概述中還有一個(gè)核心理念是，許多國(guó)家政府對(duì)能源轉(zhuǎn)型的支持力度有所加大。但脫碳挑戰(zhàn)的規(guī)模表明，全球需要更多的支持，包括加快低碳能源和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的許可和政策批準(zhǔn)。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶 網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Oil and Gas Megatrends to 2050

In a new report sent to Rigzone, analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, have outlined several megatrends for the oil and gas sector out to 2050.

The waning of oil demand is one of those megatrends, the analysts highlighted in the report, adding that global oil and gas demand will come under increasing pressure, “forcing industry consolidation as the energy transition accelerates, fostering rising energy efficiency and widespread fuel switching”.

“To date, the bulk of demand destruction has been concentrated in easier to abate industries, such as the road transport and power sectors, and has largely accrued in developed markets (DMs),” the analysts stated in the report.

“However, if the Paris Agreement goals are to be met, deeper decarbonization strategies will be required across all sectors and markets globally,” they added.

In the report, the BMI analysts noted that, according to their data, DM oil consumption will fall into permanent decline from 2025, while the emerging market (EM) peak will lag by at least a decade, “given the greater difficulties faced in meaningfully shifting the energy mix, while meeting rapidly growing consumption”.

“Differences in the underlying energy mix and widely varying economic, demographic, and policy outlooks will see the pace of subsequent declines vary across different regions with markets peaking at varying timeframes,” the analysts stated in the report.

“Over a multi-decade horizon, demand will be most durable in Africa, the Middle East and Central and Eastern Europe, while Western Europe and North America and developed Asia will see the fastest declines,” they added.

Demand trajectories will also vary across the fuel basket, the analysts said in the report.

“Road transport fuels are most vulnerable to the energy transition as fuel efficiency mandates rise and alternatives such as EVs ramp up adoption, while aviation and marine fuels, although harder to replace, will also suffer steep losses up to 2050 as alternatives begin to enter the marketplace next decade,” they said.

“In contrast, those fuels serving the petrochemicals and heavy industrial sectors will be longer lasting as the pathways to viable alternatives is least developed,” they added.

Oil Supply

Another megatrend outlined in the report is that oil supply will track lower as global policy and demand shifts corporate strategy.

“The long-term hydrocarbon supply outlook is weak given the expectation for declining demand long term, which will result in persistent under investment in the upstream sector by oil and gas producers as they evolve into integrated energy companies,” the analysts stated in the report.

“This emerging dynamic of lower demand will see upstream investment pared back to preserve oil prices and sustain profits by limiting market supply,” they added.

“This transition is mainly driven by the shift in strategies among upstream companies as they respond to reduction requirements for high carbon emitting industries, including oil and gas, and the weakening long-term demand outlook which disincentivizes more risky, long-term investments, especially those with high upfront development costs,” they continued.

The BMI analysts noted in the report that increasingly stringent environmental regulations and hardening of government positions against the fossil fuel sector will continue to threaten future greenfield oil and gas projects and accelerate the shift away from hydrocarbon investments.

“From a financial perspective, we note the recent trend for the targeting of energy companies with windfall taxes and rising regulations, thereby disincentivizing energy companies from committing heavily to future exploration and production,” the analysts said.

“We expect that exploration and production companies will continue raising capital expenditure allocations towards low carbon efforts (mitigation of emissions, carbon credits offsets) at the cost of growth in upstream and downstream projects,” they added.

“Under-investment among a number of producers will lead to decelerating production growth, especially among producers facing an increasing share of maturing fields in their upstream project portfolio,” they continued.

“We highlight that the U.S. will see some maturing of its prolific shale asset base and will see output plateauing or declining amid slowing investment in new growth,” the analysts went on to state.

The Role of OPEC

The rise of OPEC was another megatrend flagged in the report.

“The commitment to transition away from fossil fuels to low-emission alternatives will see OPEC’s global market power shift and evolve,” the BMI analysts said in the report.

“Oil producers will become more concentrated as demand trends downward and the degree of competition in supply prompts a focus on efficiency, costs, and emissions intensity,” they added.

“Saudi Arabia has doubled down on efforts to become ‘the last producer standing’ with its goal of raising crude production capacity to 13 million barrels per day by 2027, up from its current limit of 12 million barrels per day, as well as increasing natural gas production by 50 percent by 2030,” they continued.

In the report, the BMI analysts stated that many OPEC and OPEC+ producers already possess low-cost operations and added that “it follows that OPEC’s share of oil supply is set to grow”.

“Coupled with our expectations for oil demand to fall, while this would result in a larger share of the market in total, it would be a smaller pie,” the analysts highlighted.

Looking at future policy from the group, the BMI analysts noted that OPEC will evolve its strategy to move away from short-term price regulation to long-term policy impacts.

“These policy driven actions are expected to be largely set by the key Gulf Cooperation Council countries currently controlling the bulk of oil production,” the analysts said.

“We do expect some group tensions to persist and national interests to outweigh OPEC cohesion but this is only expected from the non-core producers,” they added.

“As a result, the group’s make-up is likely to continue to shift although ultimately control will rest with the current top producers,” they continued.

The analysts also stated that the focus of the group will see a wider move towards climate adaptation and emissions mitigation over a wholesale replacement of fossil fuels.

“This emphasis on technical solutions to climate change (carbon capture, blue hydrogen/ammonia, among others) raises the risk that emissions targets will be missed as limited capital and time is diverted to pursue these oil and gas preserving endeavors,” they said.

BP Outlook

Back in January this year, BP published its 2023 Energy Outlook, which the company said considers the recent disruption to global energy supplies and associated impacts on global prices and explores how this could affect the energy transition out to 2050.

In a dedicated energy outlook segment on its website, BP outlines several “core beliefs” of the report. These include the decline of oil demand over the outlook, “driven by falling use in road transport as the efficiency of the vehicle fleet improves and the electrification of road vehicles accelerates”, BP highlights.

Even so, oil continues to play a major role in the global energy system for the next 15-20 years, BP’s site states.

Another core belief is that the global power system decarbonizes, “l(fā)ed by the increasing dominance of wind and solar power”, BP outlines.

“Wind and solar account for all or most of the growth in power generation, aided by continuing cost competitiveness and an increasing ability to integrate high proportions of these variable power sources into power systems,” BP’s site notes.

“The growth in wind and solar requires a significant acceleration in the financing and building of new capacity,” it adds.

Another core belief is that government support for the energy transition has increased in a number of countries, according to BP.

“But the scale of the decarbonization challenge suggests greater support is required globally, including policies to facilitate quicker permitting and approval of low-carbon energy and infrastructure,” BP states on its site.