氣候變化使石油和天然氣公司的運(yùn)營成本更高

越來越多的美國行業(yè)高管預(yù)計(jì)，美國石油產(chǎn)量將在未來五到六年內(nèi)達(dá)到峰值

石油巨頭已開始大舉投資碳捕獲、利用和封存（CCUS）技術(shù)

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年4月23日?qǐng)?bào)道，海平面上升、野火、熱浪和極端天氣事件已經(jīng)在全球各地造成嚴(yán)重破壞，并可能導(dǎo)致基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施崩潰、農(nóng)作物減產(chǎn)、健康問題和勞動(dòng)力流失，給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)造成數(shù)千億美元的損失。當(dāng)大多數(shù)人想到氣候變化時(shí)，往往認(rèn)為石油和天然氣行業(yè)要承擔(dān)最大的責(zé)任，因?yàn)樗鼈兊亩趸己蜏厥覛怏w排放量很高。然而，很少有人停下來想想，正在傷害社區(qū)的生態(tài)影響也在對(duì)化石燃料行業(yè)造成影響。

氣候變化使得石油和天然氣公司的運(yùn)營成本越來越高。事實(shí)上，與氣候變化有關(guān)的石油和天然氣行業(yè)的供應(yīng)威脅已經(jīng)開始顯現(xiàn)，全球超過6000億桶的商業(yè)可采油氣儲(chǔ)量(占總儲(chǔ)量的40%)面臨著高度或極端的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。根據(jù)總部位于英國的全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和戰(zhàn)略咨詢公司Verisk Maplecroft公布的數(shù)據(jù)，與氣候相關(guān)事件擾亂了石油流向全球市場，這種影響在沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和尼日利亞尤為嚴(yán)重。

考慮到越來越多的石油供應(yīng)見頂信號(hào)，這一消息令人擔(dān)憂。越來越多的美國行業(yè)高管期望美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。由于成本上升，勞動(dòng)力和設(shè)備供應(yīng)有限，美國頁巖生產(chǎn)商迅速提高產(chǎn)量的努力受到了限制，人們對(duì)頁巖再次繁榮的期望正在迅速破滅。

值得慶幸的是，石油和天然氣行業(yè)正致力于減緩氣候變化。

碳捕獲的機(jī)會(huì)

雖然樹木和其他植物可以自然地從大氣中清除二氧化碳，但大多數(shù)氣候變化專家現(xiàn)在都認(rèn)為，我們沒有能力種植足夠多、生長足夠快的植物來限制損害。

碳捕獲是一項(xiàng)被提議用來限制全球變暖和氣候變化的技術(shù)。政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)(IPCC)和國際能源署(IEA)都認(rèn)為，碳捕獲、利用和封存(CCUS)技術(shù)是許多難以減排的行業(yè)的理想解決方案，如航空、制氫和來自化石燃料的水泥。

不幸的是，在投資CCUS方面，世界遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠：根據(jù)國際能源署(IEA)公布的數(shù)據(jù)，全球只有35家商業(yè)設(shè)施將CCUS應(yīng)用于工業(yè)過程、燃料轉(zhuǎn)化和發(fā)電，年總捕獲能力約為45億噸二氧化碳。然而，麥肯錫公司估計(jì)，全球CCUS的二氧化碳吸收量需要提高120倍，達(dá)到每年至少42億噸的二氧化碳吸收量，才能實(shí)現(xiàn)到2050年前的凈零排放承諾。

盡管如此，石油巨頭還是開始大張旗鼓地行動(dòng)起來，盡管最終更多的是為了延長油氣田的開采期，而不是減輕氣候變化的影響。

在過去的幾年里，石油巨頭已經(jīng)開始大力投資CCUS，許多人認(rèn)為這只是石油巨頭延長油氣田開采期的一種方式，因?yàn)椴东@的二氧化碳被用于提高原油采收率(EOR)。

兩周前，埃克森美孚公司首席執(zhí)行官達(dá)倫·伍茲告訴投資者，該公司的低碳業(yè)務(wù)有潛力在十年內(nèi)超越其傳統(tǒng)的石油和天然氣業(yè)務(wù)，并產(chǎn)生數(shù)千億美元的收入。伍茲概述了未來五年內(nèi)該公司營收有望達(dá)到數(shù)十億美元的預(yù)測。在5至10年內(nèi)達(dá)到數(shù)百億美元，在最初的10年增長之后達(dá)到數(shù)千億美元。然而，伍茲表示，埃克森美孚公司是否能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)其目標(biāo)將取決于對(duì)碳定價(jià)的監(jiān)管和政策支持，以及減少溫室氣體排放的成本，以及其他變化。

埃克森美孚公司認(rèn)為，通過與旨在降低自身碳足跡的客戶簽訂可預(yù)測的長期合同，這將導(dǎo)致“更加穩(wěn)定或周期性更低”，不太容易受到大宗商品價(jià)格波動(dòng)的影響。例如，埃克森美孚公司最近與工業(yè)氣體公司林德公司簽署了一份長期合同，涉及與林德公司計(jì)劃在得克薩斯州博蒙特的清潔氫氣項(xiàng)目相關(guān)的二氧化碳排放。埃克森美孚公司每年將從林德公司的工廠運(yùn)輸并永久儲(chǔ)存多達(dá)220萬噸的二氧化碳。早在今年2月，林德公司就公布了一項(xiàng)耗資18億美元的綜合計(jì)劃，其中將包括具有碳捕獲的自熱重整裝置和一個(gè)大型空氣分離廠，以供應(yīng)清潔的氫氣和氮?dú)狻?/p>

斯倫貝謝新能源公司

今年2月，油田服務(wù)巨頭斯倫貝謝公司與彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)(BNEF)討論了其新成立的斯倫貝謝新能源公司。根據(jù)斯倫貝謝新能源公司總裁加文·倫尼克的說法，到本十年結(jié)束前，新能源公司的收入預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到30億美元，到下一個(gè)十年末，收入至少將達(dá)到100億美元。斯倫貝謝公司將專注于五個(gè)關(guān)鍵細(xì)分市場，包括碳排放解決方案、氫氣 、地?zé)岷偷責(zé)崮堋?/span>能源儲(chǔ)存、極其重要的礦產(chǎn)品，每個(gè)細(xì)分市場的最低目標(biāo)市場為100億美元。

倫尼克表示，在這些細(xì)分市場中，碳捕獲、利用和封存(CCUS)是增長最快的機(jī)會(huì)，這得益于美國《通脹削減法案》(IRA)的大力推動(dòng)。 

西方石油公司（Oxy）被視為CCUS項(xiàng)目強(qiáng)有力競爭者

為了實(shí)現(xiàn)氣候目標(biāo)，麥肯錫公司建議建立CCUS中心，本質(zhì)上是一個(gè)共享相同的二氧化碳運(yùn)輸、儲(chǔ)存或利用基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的設(shè)施群。目前，全球只有15個(gè)CCUS中心；麥肯錫公司估計(jì)，全球有可能建立多達(dá)700個(gè)CCUS中心，這些中心將位于或靠近潛在的二氧化碳存儲(chǔ)地點(diǎn)和提高油氣采收率地點(diǎn)。

美國政府目前支持四個(gè)CCUS中心，其中西方石油公司（Oxy）的兩個(gè)主要CCUS項(xiàng)目被視為強(qiáng)有力的競爭者。美國政府將提供三個(gè)級(jí)別的資助，從初期可行性研究階段的300萬元，到工程設(shè)計(jì)研究階段的1250萬元，再到即將完成采購、建造和運(yùn)營階段的項(xiàng)目最高可達(dá)5億元。

瑞士初創(chuàng)企業(yè)Climeworks迄今已融資逾8億美元，是迄今為止全球最活躍的CCUS公司之一。  

麥肯錫公司估計(jì)，到2035年前，全球每年需要在CCUS技術(shù)上投資1200億至1500億美元，才能實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放。為了有效地?cái)U(kuò)展這項(xiàng)技術(shù)，麥肯錫公司指出，有必要加強(qiáng)整個(gè)價(jià)值鏈的協(xié)調(diào)。值得慶幸的是，由于對(duì)化石燃料的需求降溫，現(xiàn)有大型能源巨頭似乎熱衷于在這個(gè)可能價(jià)值數(shù)萬億美元的行業(yè)中實(shí)現(xiàn)自我定位。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil & Gas In The Age Of Climate Change

·     Climate change is making it costlier for oil and gas companies to operate.

·     A growing number of U.S. industry executives expect U.S. oil production to peak within the next five or six years.

·     Big Oil firms have started investing heavily in CCUS.

Rising sea levels, wild-fires, heat waves and extreme weather events are already wreaking havoc everywhere and could cost the global economy hundreds of billions of dollars in crumbling infrastructure, reduced crop yields, health problems, and lost labor. When most people think about climate change, the oil and gas industries tend to take the lion’s share of the blame due to their high levels of CO2 and GHG emissions. Few people, however, pause and consider that the same ecological fallout that is hurting communities is also taking a toll on the fossil fuel industry.

Climate change is making it costlier for oil and gas companies to operate. Indeed, climate-related?supply threats have already begun to manifest in the oil and gas industry, with more than 600 billion barrels equivalent of the world’s commercially recoverable oil and gas reserves, or 40% of total reserves, facing high or extreme risks. According to UK-based global risk and strategic consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft, the risk of?climate related events disrupting?the flow?of oil?to global markets?is highest in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Nigeria.

This revelation is worrying considering growing signals of peak oil supply. A growing number of U.S. industry executives expect US. oil production to peak within the next five or six years while others think the peak will come much earlier, Expectations for another shale boom are quickly dying thanks to rising costs as well as limited supplies of labor and equipment hamstringing efforts by U.S. shale producers to quickly ramp up production.

Thankfully, the oil and gas industry is committing itself more to efforts aimed at slowing down climate change.

The Carbon Capture Opportunity

While trees and other plants naturally remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, most climate change experts now agree that we are just not capable of planting enough, fast enough, to limit the damage.

Carbon capture is one technology that has been proposed to limit global warming and climate change. Both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and International Energy Agency (IEA) consider carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) an ideal solution for many hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation, hydrogen production and cement from fossil fuels. 

Unfortunately, the world has fallen woefully short when it comes to investing in CCUS: according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) there are only 35 commercial facilities globally that are applying CCUS to industrial processes, fuel transformation and power generation, with a total annual capture capacity of ~45?Mt?CO2. However, McKinsey estimates that global CCUS uptake needs to be 120x higher, rising to at least 4.2 gigatons per annum (GTPA) of CO2 captured, for the world to achieve its net-zero commitments by 2050.

Still, Big Oil is beginning to step up in a big way, even if it is, in the end, more of a way of extending life than contributing to a lessening of the effects of climate change. 

Over the past few years, Big Oil firms have started investing heavily in CCUS, which many argue is simply Big Oil’s way of extending the life of oil and gas fields because captured carbon is used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). 

Two weeks ago, Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) CEO Darren Woods told investors that the company’s Low Carbon business has the potential to outperform its legacy oil and gas business within a decade and generate hundreds of billions in revenues. Woods outlined projections showing how the business has the potential to hit revenue of billions of dollars within the next five years; tens of billions in 5-10 years, and hundreds of billions after the initial 10-year ramp-up. However, whether Exxon is able to actualize its goal will depend on regulatory and policy support for carbon pricing, as well as the cost to abate greenhouse gas emissions, among other changes, Ammann said.

Exxon believes that this will result in a "much more stable, or less cyclical" that is less prone to commodity price swings through predictable, long-term contracts with customers aiming to lower their own carbon footprint. For instance, Exxon recently signed a long-term contract with industrial gas company Linde Plc. (NYSE:LIN) that involves offtake of carbon dioxide associated with Linde’s planned clean hydrogen project in Beaumont, Texas. Exxon will transport and permanently store as much as 2.2M metric tons/year of carbon dioxide each year from Linde’s plant. Back in February, Linde unveiled plans to build a $1.8B complex which will include autothermal reforming with carbon capture and a large air separation plant to supply clean hydrogen and nitrogen.

SLB New Energy

Back in February, oil field services giant Schlumberger Ltd (NYSE:SLB) discussed its newly carved SLB New Energy unit with Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). According to SLB New Energy president Gavin Rennick, the unit is expected to hit revenue of $3 billion by the end of the current decade and at least $10 billion by the end of the next decade. SLB will focus on five key niches, each with a minimum addressable market of $10 billion.:

Carbon solutions

Hydrogen

Geothermal and geoenergy

Energy storage

Critical minerals

Of these segments, Rennick says carbon capture, utilization and sequestration (CCUS) is the fastest growing opportunity thanks to the significant boost it got from the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Occidental

To achieve our climate goal, McKinsey has proposed the creation of CCUS hubs, essentially a cluster of facilities that share the same CO2 transportation and storage or utilization infrastructure. Currently, there are only 15 CCUS hubs across the globe; MckInsey estimates that there’s the potential to build as many as 700 CCUS hubs globally, located on, or close to, potential storage locations and Enhanced Oil and Gas Recovery (EOR/EGR) sites.

The U.S. government is currently backing four hubs, with two major Occidental Petroleum Corporation’s (NYSE:OXY) projects seen as strong contenders. The government is offering three levels of funding, ranging from $3 million for early stage feasibility studies to $12.5 million for engineering design studies to up to $500 million for projects ready to complete the procurement, construction and operation phases.

Swiss start-up Climeworks, which has raised more than $800 million to date, is among the most active CCUS firms so far.

McKinsey estimates that annual global investment in CCUS technology of $120 billion to $150 billion by 2035 is required for the world to achieve net zero. To scale the technology effectively, the firm notes that greater coordination across the value chain is necessary. Thankfully, large, incumbent energy giants appear keen to position themselves for what could be a multi-trillion-dollar industry as demand for fossil fuels cools off.