據彭博新聞社2023年3月20日報道,受對沖基金青睞的交易價差大幅下跌,同時銀行業動蕩動搖了整個市場的信心,時下油價徘徊在15個月低點附近。
周一布倫特原油12月對12月價差收窄至2021年12月以來的最低水平,表明近期對石油需求前景減弱的擔憂產生了較長期影響。就連最熱衷看漲原油價格的高盛集團(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)也不再預測今年原油價格將達到每桶100美元。
高盛集團還下調了對未來12個月布倫特原油價格的預測,原因是對近期經濟衰退的擔憂加劇,以及投資者資金外流大幅壓低了原油價格。
帝國商業銀行私人財富管理高級能源交易員麗貝卡·巴賓表示:“過去一周,投資者心理受到了傷害,只有市場出現企穩,投資者才會重拾信心。”“由于我們本周進入美聯儲,預計將出現更多波動和低信心交易。”
自去年底以來,油價一直在狹窄的通道中徘徊。上周,由于銀行業危機放大了全球經濟衰退的擔憂,以及產能大國原油供應的韌性,油價終于跌破低位。油價暴跌增加了歐佩克+干預市場的可能性,盡管有人猜測該石油出口國組織目前將保持觀望。
李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社
原文如下:
Oil Near 2021 Lows as Banking Crisis Boosts Recession Fears
Oil hovered around 15-month lows as a favored spread for hedge funds to trade plunged with banking turmoil shaking confidence across markets.
Brent’s December-December spread narrowed on Monday to its weakest level since Dec. 2021, suggesting a longer-term impact from recent fears of a diminished demand outlook. Even crude’s most ardent bull, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., no longer forecasts the commodity to reach $100 a barrel this year.
The bank lowered its Brent projection for the 12 months ahead as rising near-term recession concerns and an exodus of investor flows sharply lowered crude prices.
“Investor psyche has been damaged over the past week and it is going to take the emergence of a market stability to draw investors back to the fold,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. “Expect more volatility and low- conviction trading as we head into the Fed this week”
After being stuck in a narrow channel since the end of last year, oil prices broke lower last week as the banking crisis magnified global recession fears and the resilience in the largger producer crude flows. The price slump has raised the prospect of intervention from OPEC+, though there’s speculation the group will stay on the sidelines for now.
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