據路透社1月10日消息，可持續發展咨詢公司奧雅納和經濟咨詢公司牛津經濟研究院最近在一份報告中表示，到2050年，幫助世界向凈零排放轉變的行業可能為全球經濟帶來10.3萬億美元的價值。

從熱浪到洪水，極端天氣事件不僅代價高昂，而且越來越多地在全球范圍內引發動蕩，迫使政府和行業尋求減少溫室氣體排放，減緩氣候變化。

牛津經濟研究院首席執行官阿德里安·庫珀在一份聲明中表示：“作為經濟學家，我們必須誠實地面對減緩氣候變化將耗資巨大的事實，但向碳中和的全球經濟轉型也帶來了令人信服的機遇。”

分析顯示，到本世紀中葉，有助于實現《巴黎協定》凈零目標的碳中和商品和服務的新興市場將價值10.3萬億美元，約占預計國內生產總值(GDP)的5%。

報告指出：“這包括電動汽車制造、可再生能源發電、清潔能源裝備制造、可再生燃料和綠色金融對GDP的直接貢獻，再加上全球供應鏈支持的活動。”

報告還顯示，隨著工業在全球能源供應危機中轉向清潔能源，由此造成的中斷將為能夠迅速適應不斷變化的需求的公司創造新的競爭機會。

奧雅納公司和牛津經濟研究院發現，與氣候變化沒有得到遏制或應對不力的世界相比，綠色轉型將導致從減緩氣候變化中獲得巨大的生產力提高。

牛津經濟研究院的一項情景分析表明，如果不采取行動，到2050年全球GDP將損失約5%。報告稱，2021年，與天氣有關的經濟活動中斷造成的損失已經達到2330億美元。

奧雅納全球戰略技能負責人布賴斯·理查德表示：“這份報告表明，綠色轉型不是全球經濟的負擔，而是帶來更大、更包容繁榮的重大機遇。”

龐曉華 摘譯自 路透社

原文如下：

Green industries could be worth $10.3 T to economy by 2050

Industries helping the world shift to net-zero emissions could be worth $10.3 T to the global economy by 2050, sustainable development consultancy Arup and economics advisory firm Oxford Economics said in a report on Tuesday.

From heatwaves to floods, extreme weather events are not only costly but increasingly causing upheaval across the globe, pushing governments and industries to seek to cut greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change.

"As economists, we have to be honest about the fact that mitigating climate change will be expensive," Oxford Economics' Chief Executive Adrian Cooper said in a statement. "But the transition to a carbon-neutral global economy also presents compelling opportunities."

The analysis showed emerging new markets for carbon-neutral goods and services that help reach the Paris Agreement net-zero target will be worth $10.3 trillion, or about 5% of projected gross domestic product (GDP), by mid-century.

"This includes the direct contribution to GDP of electric vehicles manufacturing, renewable power generation, clean energy equipment manufacturing, renewable fuels and green finance; plus the activity supported across global supply chains," the report stated.

It also showed, as industries shift to clean power amid a global energy supply crisis, that resulting disruptions will create new competitive opportunities for companies able to adapt quickly to changing demands.

Arup and Oxford Economics found the green transition would lead to substantial productivity gains from climate change mitigation compared to "a world in which climate change has been left unchecked, or poorly tackled".

A scenario analysis by Oxford Economics suggested a failure to act could damage global GDP by around 5% by 2050. In 2021, it said the cost of weather-related interruptions to economic activity had already reached $233 B.

"This report shows the green transition is not a burden on the global economy, but a substantial opportunity to bring about a greater and more inclusive prosperity," Arup Global Strategy Skills Leader Brice Richard said.