據(jù)美國鉆井網(wǎng)站2022年12月27日報(bào)道，過去的一年是石油和天然氣行業(yè)的豐收年，油價(jià)上漲至十年來的高點(diǎn)。《投資新聞》(Investing News)近日發(fā)布了一份未來一年值得留心的記事清單。

疫情封鎖后的需求復(fù)蘇與對制裁造成的供應(yīng)中斷相結(jié)合，推動西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油和布倫特原油在2022年上半年升至每桶120美元。下半年原油價(jià)格開始走低，這兩種原油的價(jià)格在年底均將保持在年初的水平。

與此同時(shí)，由于地緣政治沖突給全球市場和經(jīng)濟(jì)注入了不確定性，歐洲的天然氣供應(yīng)面臨障礙。截至8月份，用于家庭供暖的燃料價(jià)格已達(dá)到9.71美元/百萬英熱單位的14年來的高點(diǎn)。

FocusEconomics小組成員馬修·坎寧安說：“今年油價(jià)的大部分波動是由地緣政治沖突引起的——到3月初，油價(jià)飆升了30%左右——以及后來西方國家及其盟友宣布制裁。由于涉及北約的戰(zhàn)爭不太可能大幅升級，而且大多數(shù)重大制裁措施已經(jīng)宣布，戰(zhàn)爭不太可能導(dǎo)致價(jià)格像2022年那樣大幅飆升或暴跌。

在高通脹和利率上升的背景下，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景惡化，能源價(jià)格走低。11月份，原油價(jià)格跌至每桶90美元以下，此后一直保持在這一水平。

Fulp地質(zhì)學(xué)家米奇·富爾普說：“這基本上是2022年的最低點(diǎn)。”“這在很大程度上與全球封鎖減少了需求有關(guān)，而高油價(jià)也減少了美國的需求。”

摩根大通經(jīng)濟(jì)和政策研究主管布魯斯·卡斯曼寫道：“由于冬季將加劇疫情問題和歐洲的天然氣危機(jī)，全球增長前景仍然低迷，但我們認(rèn)為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不會在2023年初陷入衰退。供應(yīng)鏈和大宗商品價(jià)格沖擊的減弱，正在緩解金融狀況的拖累。”

值得注意的是，2022年的高通脹和嚴(yán)格的貨幣政策使全球GDP增長幾乎減半，從2021年的6%降至3.2%。預(yù)計(jì)到2023年，這一數(shù)字將萎縮至2.7%。是自2001年以來最疲弱的增長時(shí)期。 

石油和天然氣供應(yīng)問題將持續(xù)存在

世界一直指望石油輸出國組織(歐佩克)提高原油產(chǎn)量。

11月份，歐佩克原油日產(chǎn)量減少了31萬桶。今年的第11個(gè)月也看到了歐佩克未能完成每天181萬桶的預(yù)期配額。另一方面，進(jìn)入歐洲的液化天然氣進(jìn)口激增，推動這種取暖燃料的價(jià)格降至5.28美元，為今年3月以來的最低點(diǎn)。

對于石油來說，供應(yīng)仍然是一個(gè)問題。各國不僅需要確保穩(wěn)定的石油供應(yīng)以保持經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行，而且美國等國還需要補(bǔ)充今年早些時(shí)候動用的戰(zhàn)略石油儲備。

2022年，美國從戰(zhàn)略石油儲備中釋放了1.8億桶原油，收入40億美元。目前，美國戰(zhàn)略石油儲備為3.7862億桶，低于一年前的5.9892億桶。

Fulp說：“他們沒有為任何石油和天然氣企業(yè)提供資金，因此企業(yè)無法籌集到資金，產(chǎn)量也持平。”“自從我們從疫情流行中恢復(fù)以來，美國的產(chǎn)量一年半以來基本上一直持平，而且沒有上升。”

根據(jù)Fulp地質(zhì)學(xué)家的說法，如果美國能找到更有效的國際運(yùn)輸方式，它就有機(jī)會獲得液化天然氣。

石油和天然氣公司預(yù)計(jì)將表現(xiàn)良好

盡管機(jī)構(gòu)投資者已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)離石油和天然氣，但油氣行業(yè)在2022年仍獲得了巨大利潤。今年的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)使惠譽(yù)評級(Fitch Ratings)給予油氣行業(yè)穩(wěn)定展望評級。

報(bào)告指出：“2023年油氣行業(yè)的表現(xiàn)將與2022年大體一致，并明顯強(qiáng)于周期中期。”“我們預(yù)計(jì)明年石油和天然氣的平均價(jià)格將有所緩和，尤其是由于經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，但由于產(chǎn)能大國和歐佩克+的謹(jǐn)慎立場，石油和天然氣供應(yīng)減少，碳?xì)浠衔锸袌鰧⒗^續(xù)緊張。”

油氣行業(yè)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)，75%的石油和天然氣公司在分紅后的自由現(xiàn)金流為正。

高級總監(jiān)Dmitry Marinchenko在一份報(bào)告中表示：“盡管一些國家引入了暴利稅，但全球石油和天然氣公司仍將繼續(xù)公布高收益。通貨膨脹會產(chǎn)生影響，但大多數(shù)油氣公司在低油價(jià)期間都大幅降低了成本，這將有助于他們的現(xiàn)金流。 ”

穆迪對未來一年持樂觀態(tài)度，認(rèn)為亞洲需求增長將成為價(jià)格的催化劑。

根據(jù)惠譽(yù)的說法，如果歐佩克+保持謹(jǐn)慎，備用產(chǎn)能可能會受到影響，為價(jià)格增加利好因素。但更大規(guī)模、更長期的能源轉(zhuǎn)型可能導(dǎo)致需求放緩和價(jià)格疲軟。

2023年石油和天然氣價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)波動

FocusEconomic小組成員認(rèn)為，受到最近削減產(chǎn)量配額的限制，2023年歐佩克的原油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將基本停滯不前。由于更嚴(yán)厲的制裁，世界第三大產(chǎn)油國原油產(chǎn)量將下降，而美國的原油產(chǎn)量將增長，盡管由于頁巖生產(chǎn)商最近鉆井活動疲軟，增長速度有限。

因此，2023年的原油價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)一些波動，整體平均價(jià)格將比2022年低7%左右。此外，不確定性將使油價(jià)保持在過去十年的最高水平，維持在每桶90美元的水平。

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Top Trends To Affect Oil and Gas In 2023

The past year was a banner year for the oil and gas sector as prices rallied to decade highs. Investing News published a list of things to look out for in the coming year.

A resurgence in demand following pandemic lockdowns converged with supply disruptions caused by sanctions , driving West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude to $120 per barrel during the first half of the year. Values began to trend lower in H2, leaving both crude types on course to end the year in the same price territory as they started.

Meanwhile, European natural gas supply faced hurdles as the war infused global markets and economies with uncertainty. By August, prices for the fuel used to heat homes had reached a 14 year high of $9.71 MMBtu.

Investing News quoted FocusEconomics claiming the war severely disrupted energy supply，which last year accounted for more than 10 percent of world crude supply and 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas imports.

“Most of the volatility seen in oil prices this year was caused by the announcement of the war— with prices spiking around 30 percent by early March — and the later announcement of sanctions by western countries and their allies. With a major escalation of the war involving NATO unlikely, and most significant sanctions already announced, the war is less likely to cause prices to spike or plummet as sharply as in 2022,” FocusEconomics panelist Matthew Cunningham said.

Amid high inflation and rising interest rates, the global economic outlook has worsened and pushed energy prices lower. Prices for crude fell below $90 in November and have remained at that level since.

“It's basically at a year-to-date low,” Mercenary Geologist Mickey Fulp said. “A lot of that has to do with lockdowns decreasing demand, and high gas prices have decreased demand in the US.”

“With the winter set to aggravate COVID problems and Europe’s natural gas crisis, the global growth outlook remains depressed, but we do not see the global economy at imminent risk of sliding into recession in early 2023. The financial conditions drag is being cushioned by a fading of supply chain and commodity price shocks,” wrote Bruce Kasman, head of economic and policy research at JPMorgan.

It is worth noting that 2022’s high inflation and strict monetary policy have shrunk global GDP growth by almost half, from 6 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent. That number is forecast to contract to 2.7 percent in 2023, representing the weakest growth period since 2001.

Oil and gas supply questions to persist

The world has looked to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to ramp up production.

In November, OPEC production contracted by 310,000 barrels per day. The 11th month of the year also saw the oil cartel fail to meet its projected quota by as much as 1.81 million barrels per day. On the flip side LNG imports into Europe jumped, helping to bring the price of the heating fuel to US$5.28, its lowest point since March.

For oil, supply remains a concern. Not only will countries need to secure a steady supply to keep their economies running, but nations like the US will also need to replenish reserves they tapped into earlier this year.

In 2022, the US released 180 million barrels of crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, raking in a total of US$4 billion. Currently, the reserve houses 378.62 million barrels, down from 598.92 million one year ago.

“They are not funding any oil and gas ventures, so companies cannot raise money and their production is flat,” Fulp said. “Production has been flat in the US for basically a year and a half now since we recovered from the pandemic, and it's not going higher.”

According to the Mercenary Geologist, the US has an opportunity regarding LNG if it can find more efficient ways to transport it internationally.

Oil and gas companies expected to perform well

Even though institutional investors have moved away from oil and gas, the sector saw significant profits in 2022. The year’s strong performance has led to Fitch Ratings giving the sector a stable outlook score.

“Sector performance in 2023 will remain broadly in line with that in 2022 and significantly stronger than in the mid-cycle,” it states. “We expect average oil and gas prices to moderate in 2023, not least because of an economic slowdown, but the hydrocarbon markets will remain tight due to lower oil and in particular natural gas supplies from the third largest oil-producing nation and OPEC+’s cautious stance.”

The industry watchdog expects 75 percent of oil and gas companies to report positive free cash flow after dividends.

“[Oil and gas] companies across the globe will continue to report high earnings despite windfall taxes introduced by some countries. Inflation will bite but most companies have significantly reduced costs during the period of low oil prices, which will contribute to their cash flows,” Senior Director Dmitry Marinchenko said in a report.

Optimistic about the year ahead, the ratings group believes demand growth out of Asia will be a price catalyst. 

Spare capacity could be impacted if OPEC+ remains cautious, adding tailwinds to values, as per Fitch. But the larger, longer-term energy transition could lead to slowing demand and price weakness.

Expect oil and gas price volatility in 2023

FocusEconomic panelists see production from OPEC largely stagnating in 2023, capped by the recent output quota cut.production will fall due to tighter sanctions, while output in the US is set to grow, albeit at a limited rate because of recent weak drilling activity by shale producers.

As a result, prices are expected to see some volatility with crude prices overall to average around 7 percent lower in 2023 than they did in 2022. Also, uncertainty will keep prices at the highest levels in the past decade, holding in the $90 level.