據鉆機地帶11月18日報道,美國原油市場的結構正顯示出近一年來首次出現供應過剩的跡象,這是最近一段石油期貨市場暴跌規模的最新指標。
反映短期供需平衡的即月價差,在12月合約將于周一到期之前交易,出現期貨溢價(期貨溢價是對看跌市場結構的行業術語)。另一個隨后的價差也變成了期貨溢價。其余的仍處于相反的看漲結構,即現貨溢價,表明這一走勢仍可能是短期的。
市場參與者表示,此舉在很大程度上可歸因于期貨交易員積累了大量的多頭頭寸,并在整體價格因需求擔憂而暴跌的同時退出。潛在的現貨市場疲軟以及得克薩斯州管道中斷和高運費等短期因素也導致了期貨合約的崩潰,而西得克薩斯州中質原油期貨自9月以來首次跌破80美元。
周五的暴跌也恰逢12月- 1月價差期權合約到期。如果期貨溢價到期,將有近1300萬桶看跌期權獲利。當期權越過支付的水平時,就會刺激更多的拋售。
TP ICAP集團的能源專家斯科特·謝爾頓表示,最重要的是,除亞洲以外對石油的需求并不好,盡管美國的需求可能還不錯,但美國正在努力應對管道故障,這放緩了出口,并產生了可能持續幾周的疲軟。市場定位正好相反,這迫使清算,使情況變得更糟。
期貨溢價可以讓有儲油渠道的貿易商更有利可圖,他們可以根據價格之間的差距程度,將石油裝進油罐,并在以后的某一天出售。如果石油市場在一段時間內處于期貨溢價,其還會產生所謂的換月滾動收益率,即當投資者將一個頭寸從一個月滾轉到下一個月時,他們往往會虧損。
最近幾天,美國低硫原油價格的疲軟已在現貨市場顯現出來。根據彭博社的公允價值數據顯示,麥哲倫中流合伙人公司(Magellan Midstream Partners LP)位于東休斯敦的終端原油交易處于5月份以來的最低水平。根據數據顯示,由于殼牌公司(Shell Plc)運營的一條至關重要的地區輸油管道的開工率降低,二疊紀油田的產量也處于近六個月以來的低點。
郝芬 譯自 鉆機地帶
原文如下:
USA Oil Futures Point to Oversupply for First Time This Year
The US crude market’s structure is signaling oversupply for the first time in almost a year, the latest indicator of the scale of the dramatic slump in the nearest section of the oil futures market.
The front-month spread, which reflects short-term supply-demand balances, traded in contango -- the industry term for the bearish market structure -- ahead of the December contract’s expiry on Monday. One other subsequent spread also flipped to contango. The rest remain in the opposite bullish structure, known as backwardation, indicating the move could yet be a short-term one.
Much of the move can be attributed to futures traders amassing a bloated long position and heading for the exits at the same time as headline prices plummet due to demand worries, market participants said. Underlying physical market weakness and short-term factors such as a Texas pipeline outage and high freight rates have also led to the collapse in timespreads, while West Texas Intermediate futures fell below $80 for the first time since September.
Friday’s plunge also coincides with the expiry of options contracts on the December-January spread. There are almost 13 million barrels of put options that would profit if the spread expires in contango. When options move through the levels at which they pay out, they can spur additional selling.
“Bottom line here is that demand for oil out of Asia isn’t good and while it may be decent in the US, it’s struggling with the pipe outage that slows exports and generates weakness that may last for a few weeks,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc. “The market positioning was the exact opposite, which has forced liquidation and made this even worse.”
Contango can make it more profitable for traders with access to storage to put oil in tanks and sell at a later date, depending on the extent of the the gap between prices. If oil markets are in contango over a sustained period, it also generates so-called negative roll yield, where investors tend to lose money when they roll a position forward from one month to the next.
The weakness in US light-sweet crude prices has shown up in physical markets in recent days. Crude at Magellan Midstream Partners LP’s East Houston terminal is trading at the softest level since May, according to Bloomberg fair value data. Permian oil is also at a near-six-month low, the data show, with a vital regional oil pipeline run by Shell Plc running at reduced rates.
免責聲明:本網轉載自其它媒體的文章及圖片,目的在于弘揚石化精神,傳遞更多石化信息,宣傳國家石化產業政策,展示國家石化產業形象,參與國際石化產業輿論競爭,提高國際石化產業話語權,并不代表本網贊同其觀點和對其真實性負責,在此我們謹向原作者和原媒體致以崇高敬意。如果您認為本站文章及圖片侵犯了您的版權,請與我們聯系,我們將第一時間刪除。