據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)11月17日消息稱，今年短期油價(jià)預(yù)測(cè)一直看漲，大多數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)者預(yù)計(jì)明年某個(gè)時(shí)候基準(zhǔn)油價(jià)將突破100美元。然而，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看，情況會(huì)發(fā)生變化。例如，高盛（Goldman Sachs）本周在一份報(bào)告中表示，預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)可能會(huì)飆升至每桶125美元。其對(duì)2023年布倫特原油價(jià)格的基本預(yù)測(cè)為每桶110美元。

不過，至少惠譽(yù)解決方案認(rèn)為，從長(zhǎng)期來看，情況似乎會(huì)發(fā)生變化。該公司在一份獨(dú)家分享給Rigzone的報(bào)告中表示，預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)將從今年的102美元下降到2023年的95美元，并在2026年進(jìn)一步下降到85美元。

這種預(yù)期油價(jià)將在未來三年下跌的原因是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)背景，世界許多地區(qū)幾個(gè)月來一直在發(fā)出衰退警告。在這種預(yù)期中，惠譽(yù)絕非個(gè)例。許多分析師預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)將出現(xiàn)衰退，盡管并非所有人都對(duì)這些經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢(shì)導(dǎo)致的油價(jià)走向達(dá)成一致。

正是由于對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂，歐佩克自己下調(diào)了對(duì)石油需求的預(yù)期，而今年早些時(shí)候，盡管油價(jià)上漲，石油需求仍在以健康的速度增長(zhǎng)。然而，在最新的《石油市場(chǎng)月度報(bào)告》中，情況并非如此。歐佩克在報(bào)告中表示，影響油價(jià)的經(jīng)濟(jì)因素向下行傾斜，并將需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期修正了10萬桶/天。

衰退預(yù)期對(duì)油價(jià)的影響有多強(qiáng)烈，幾乎每天都有所顯現(xiàn)：在有關(guān)油價(jià)的媒體報(bào)道中，對(duì)衰退的擔(dān)憂是任何交易時(shí)段油價(jià)下跌的原因，其頻率高于其他因素。

與此同時(shí)，有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的預(yù)測(cè)不斷出現(xiàn)，尤其是對(duì)歐洲的預(yù)測(cè)。

貝倫貝格首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家霍爾格·施米丁(Holger Schmieding)在談到歐盟經(jīng)濟(jì)前景時(shí)對(duì)CNBC表示：“消費(fèi)者信心大幅下降，衰退可能不會(huì)很表面。”

歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速料將從第二季的0.8%收縮至第三季的0.2%。這仍然是一個(gè)積極的數(shù)字，但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家似乎對(duì)明年歐盟是否將面臨重新補(bǔ)充天然氣儲(chǔ)存設(shè)施的挑戰(zhàn)持懷疑態(tài)度。

路透社的約翰?坎普(John Kemp)在本月早些時(shí)候的一篇專欄文章中指出，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退肯定會(huì)壓低油價(jià)。他在信中說，盡管許多身居官方職位的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在“衰退”這個(gè)詞上轉(zhuǎn)來轉(zhuǎn)去，卻沒有真正使用這個(gè)詞，但美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩已經(jīng)開始。這一點(diǎn)在歐盟也很明顯。

那么，從現(xiàn)在開始的問題是，這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體的經(jīng)濟(jì)還會(huì)放緩到什么程度。它們經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的速度越慢，對(duì)石油的需求破壞就越大，因此對(duì)國(guó)際價(jià)格的影響也就越大。

曹海斌 摘譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Fitch: This Is The Biggest Downward Risk For Oil Markets In 2023

Short-term oil price forecasts have been persistently bullish this year, with most forecasters expecting benchmarks to top $100 sometime next year. Over the longer term, however, things change. Goldman Sachs, for instance, this week said in a note that it expected oil could surge to $125 per barrel. Its base-case forecast for 2023 is for Brent at $110 per barrel, but stronger demand if and when restrictions end could push the price even higher.

Over the longer term, things appear to change, however, at least according to Fitch Solutions. The company said in a report shared exclusively with Rigzone that it expected oil prices to fall from $102 this year to $95 in 2023 and further to $85 in 2026.

The reason for this expectation that oil will decline in price over the next three years is the macroeconomic context that has been flashing recession warnings for months in many parts of the world. In that expectation, Fitch is far from alone. A lot of analysts expect a recession, although not all of them agree on the direction oil prices are going to take as a result of these economic trends.

It was because of recession concern that OPEC itself cut its forecast for oil demand, while earlier this year, it was growing at a healthy pace despite the price rally. Not in the latest Monthly Oil Market Report, however. In it, OPEC said that the economic factors affecting oil prices were skewed to the downside and revised demand growth predictions by 100,000 bpd.

Just how strong the influence of recession expectations is on oil prices can be seen on an almost daily basis: media reports on oil prices note fears of recession as a reason for any price drop during any trading session more frequently than any other factors.

Meanwhile, forecasts about the looming recession keep coming, especially for Europe.

“Consumer confidence has plunged so badly that the recession will likely not be shallow,” the chief economist of Berenberg, Holger Schmieding, told CNBC in the context of the economic outlook for the European Union.

The euro-area economy’s growth is seen contracting from 0.8 percent in the second quarter to 0.2 percent in the third quarter. It’s still a positive number, but economists appear to have their doubts about next year when the EU will face the challenge of refilling their gas storage facilities.

A recession is a surefire way to depress oil prices, as Reuters’ John Kemp noted in a column earlier this month. In it, he said that despite many economists in official positions dancing around the word recession without actually using it, the slowdown had already begun in the United States. It is also evident in the European Union.

The question from now on, then, is just how much more those economies will slow down. The more they slow down, the greater the demand destruction in oil would be and, consequently, the greater the effect on international prices.