加拿大的可再生能源產(chǎn)能將從去年的19.6吉瓦上升到2025年的45吉瓦，其中大部分新增可再生能源產(chǎn)能將發(fā)生在加拿大著名石油省艾伯塔省

雖然艾伯塔省是加拿大化石燃料工業(yè)的中心，但它也將超過安大略省，成為加拿大最大的清潔能源來源地  

艾伯塔省不受監(jiān)管的電力市場、豐富的自然資源和熟練的能源勞動(dòng)力使其成為新項(xiàng)目的首選地點(diǎn) 

據(jù)美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)8月8日報(bào)道，數(shù)十年來一直是加拿大油氣行業(yè)所在地的艾伯塔省，未來幾年將迎來可再生能源產(chǎn)能的激增。考慮到艾伯塔省豐富的自然資源和有利的監(jiān)管環(huán)境，這將吸引投資。

加拿大的可再生能源總產(chǎn)能預(yù)計(jì)將從去年的19.6吉瓦增長到2025年的近45吉瓦，主要是受陸上風(fēng)能和太陽能項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)能增長的推動(dòng)。對于一個(gè)電力結(jié)構(gòu)主要以水力發(fā)電為主的國家來說，這并不令人意外，但引領(lǐng)這一潮流的地區(qū)卻令人意外。 

這些新增項(xiàng)目的大部分將在加拿大西部的艾伯塔省進(jìn)行。艾伯塔省以加拿大化石燃料工業(yè)之鄉(xiāng)而聞名，目前艾伯塔省的可再生能源產(chǎn)能僅為3吉瓦左右。該地區(qū)的大型項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃于今年投產(chǎn)，這將使艾伯塔省的發(fā)電能力在2023年前達(dá)到近10吉瓦。到2025年，這一總量將再次翻倍，達(dá)到近21吉瓦，接近全國總發(fā)電產(chǎn)能的一半。 

這一快速增長將使艾伯塔省超越加拿大其他省份，以幾乎兩倍的發(fā)電能力超過目前的領(lǐng)先者安大略省，成為加拿大綠色能源排行榜的榜首。

挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）可再生能源分析師杰夫?赫伯特森表示，加拿大對可再生能源并不陌生，但直到現(xiàn)在，艾伯塔省還只是一個(gè)小角色。這種情況即將改變。艾伯塔省不受監(jiān)管的電力市場、最低限度的監(jiān)管障礙和豐富的自然資源，加上現(xiàn)有的行業(yè)專業(yè)人員日益渴望適應(yīng)綠色能源，使其對開發(fā)商具有吸引力的前景。如果有雄心吸引有利可圖的綠色投資，加拿大其他省份可能會(huì)效仿。

艾伯塔省決策者的意圖已經(jīng)明確了一段時(shí)間，他們雄心勃勃地計(jì)劃到2035年前實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放，比全國2050年的目標(biāo)提前15年，艾伯塔政府也已經(jīng)采取了具體措施來實(shí)現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。艾伯塔省的電力市場不受監(jiān)管，類似于監(jiān)管美國電網(wǎng)的德州電力可靠性委員會(huì)（ERCOT）。 這使得私人投資者能夠比其他省份更快地尋求綠色投資組合和建設(shè)能力。然而，這可能會(huì)在極端需求時(shí)期造成供應(yīng)問題，就像最近得克薩斯州的冰凍和熱浪所見證的那樣。因此，艾伯塔省將需要確保足夠的系統(tǒng)靈活性，以支持可再生能源發(fā)電的間歇性。雖然短期內(nèi)不太可能，但如果為了達(dá)到碳中和目標(biāo)而取消所有的天然氣發(fā)電能力，將需要大量公用事業(yè)規(guī)模的電池來支持系統(tǒng)。

艾伯塔省的電力系統(tǒng)是獨(dú)一無二的，因?yàn)楣究梢灾苯优c私人電力生產(chǎn)商簽訂協(xié)議，每年購買一定數(shù)量的電力，用于使用或抵消用電額度。這對希望抵消該省現(xiàn)有業(yè)務(wù)排放的化石燃料公司具有吸引力。這些合同提供的財(cái)務(wù)保障有助于生產(chǎn)商在市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)更低的情況下建設(shè)更多的可再生能源項(xiàng)目，而買家則獲得廉價(jià)的可再生能源或信用，以滿足內(nèi)部或外部的排放目標(biāo)。  

與艾伯塔省形成對比的是，目前加拿大可再生能源產(chǎn)能領(lǐng)先的安大略省，至少在2025年之前不太可能出現(xiàn)任何顯著增長。安大略省利潤豐厚的上網(wǎng)電價(jià)（FiT）最初允許大規(guī)模擴(kuò)建開發(fā)項(xiàng)目，但在2016年到期。艾伯塔省引入的企業(yè)電力購買協(xié)議（PPAs）激勵(lì)了開發(fā)商。PPAs是私營運(yùn)營商以固定價(jià)格直接向當(dāng)?shù)仉娋W(wǎng)出售能源的合同。 

艾伯塔省目前可能不是加拿大最大的可再生能源市場，但該省的綠色投資組合預(yù)計(jì)到2025年前將達(dá)到近20吉瓦的太陽能和風(fēng)能裝機(jī)容量。這將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過安大略省，后者將滑到第2位，只有9吉瓦。 

近一個(gè)世紀(jì)以來，加拿大的電力結(jié)構(gòu)一直以水力發(fā)電為主，第一座水壩建于20世紀(jì)20年代。自2010年以來，水電對加拿大國內(nèi)電力需求的貢獻(xiàn)在60%至70%之間，其余主要由煤炭、天然氣和核電提供。近年來，陸上風(fēng)力發(fā)電總量有所增長，但仍相對微不足道，在2021年僅占約5%。預(yù)計(jì)到2025年底，新增的風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量將會(huì)增加到大約9%，即60太瓦時(shí)。相反，隨著加拿大逐步淘汰碳含量高的燃料，煤炭在電力結(jié)構(gòu)中的作用也將下降。2010年，燃煤發(fā)電每年提供近80太瓦時(shí)的電力，但去年逐漸下降到30太瓦時(shí)左右。到2025年，煤炭預(yù)計(jì)將僅貢獻(xiàn)14太瓦時(shí)，只占全國電力需求的2%。 

李峻 編譯自 美國油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Canada’s Oil Province Will Soon Be A Renewable Energy Leader

·     Canada’s renewable energy capacity is set to climb from 19.6 GW in 2021 to 45 GW in 2025, with the majority of the new additions taking place in Alberta.

·     While Alberta is the center of Canada’s fossil fuel industry, it is set to also become the country’s largest source of clean energy, outpacing Ontario.

·     Alberta’s unregulated power market, abundant natural resources, and skilled energy workforce make it a prime location for new projects.

The Canadian province of Alberta, home of the country’s oil and gas sector for decades, is set to undergo a renewable energy capacity surge in the coming years, attracting investments given its vast natural resources and favorable regulatory landscape.

The country’s total renewables capacity is expected to grow from 19.6 gigawatts (GW) in 2021 to almost 45 GW in 2025, driven primarily by growth in onshore wind and solar energy projects. This is not surprising for a country whose power mix is predominantly hydropower-based, but the region leading the charge is surprising.

The bulk of these additions is set to take place in the western province of Alberta - known as the home of the Canadian fossil fuel industry - which today only holds about 3 GW of renewable capacity. Significant large-scale projects in the region are scheduled to come online this year that will push Alberta’s capacity to close to 10 GW before 2023. That total will double again by 2025, reaching almost 21 GW, nearly half of the country’s total.

This rapid growth will see Alberta race ahead of Canada’s other provinces and take the top spot in the country’s green table, outpacing ontario - the current leader - with almost double the power generation capacity.

“Canada is no stranger to renewables, but Alberta has been a minor player until now. That’s about to change. The region’s unregulated power market, minimal regulatory hurdles and abundant natural resources make it an attractive prospect for developers, in addition to an existing workforce of industry professionals increasingly eager to adapt to green energy. Other provinces may want to follow suit if they have ambitions to attract lucrative green investments,” says Geoff Hebertson, renewables analyst with Rystad Energy.

The intentions of Alberta’s decision-makers have been clear for some time, with an ambitious net-zero goal by 2035, 15 years ahead of the national target of 2050, and local authorities have taken concrete steps to achieve this objective. The province has an unregulated power market, similar to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which regulates the US state’s grid. This has allowed private investors to seek green portfolios and build capacity faster than in other provinces. However, this can create supply issues during periods of extreme demand, as witnessed during recent freezes and heatwaves in Texas. The province will therefore need to ensure enough system flexibility to support the intermittency of renewable power generation. Although unlikely in the short term, if all gas generation capacity is removed to hit carbon neutrality goals, substantial utility-scale batteries will be required to back up the system.

Alberta’s electricity system is unique as companies can ink deals directly with private power producers to buy a set amount of electricity each year, either for use or for offset credits. This is attractive for fossil fuel companies looking to offset their emissions from existing operations in the province. The financial security provided by those contracts helps producers build out more renewable projects with fewer market risks, while purchasers get cheap renewable energy or credits to meet internal or external emissions goals.

In contrast to Alberta, Ontario, the current renewables capacity leader in Canada, is unlikely to see any significant growth before at least 2025. The province’s lucrative feed-in tariff (FiT) allowed for a massive expansion of developments initially, but it expired in 2016. The introduction of corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs) in Alberta - a contract for a private operator to sell energy straight to the local grid at a set price - has incentivized developers.

Alberta may not be the largest market for renewables capacity currently, but the province’s green portfolio is expected to reach nearly 20 GW of installed solar and wind capacity by 2025. That will far outpace Ontario, which will slip to the No. 2 slot, with only 9 GW.

The Canadian power mix has been dominated by hydropower generation for almost a century, with the first dams constructed in the 1920s. Hydropower has contributed between 60% and 70% of the country’s power needs since 2010, with the remainder predominantly supplied by coal, gas, and nuclear. Total onshore wind generation has grown in recent years but remains relatively insignificant, contributing only about 5% in 2021. With the wind capacity additions expected to come online by the end of 2025, that contribution will jump to almost 9%, or 60 terawatt hours (TWh). Conversely, coal’s role in the power mix is set to drop as the country pushes out the carbon-heavy fuel. In 2010, coal-fired generation provided nearly 80 TWh of power annually, but that gradually dropped to around 30 TWh last year. By 2025, coal is expected to contribute 14 TWh, just 2% of the nation’s power needs.