據(jù)鉆機(jī)地帶7月29日?qǐng)?bào)道，據(jù)雷斯塔能源稱，由于疫情導(dǎo)致全球需求下降，南美的鉆井和完井活動(dòng)在2020年大幅放緩，預(yù)計(jì)今年將達(dá)到峰值。

雷斯塔表示，近海油井的反彈更為明顯，主要是受巴西和圭亞那石油活動(dòng)增加的推動(dòng)。隨著鉆井業(yè)務(wù)的全面復(fù)蘇，南美也奪回了全球新鉆井的市場(chǎng)份額，海上鉆井證明了這個(gè)突出的行業(yè)。

2014年，南美新鉆的油井占全球海上新井的8%，陸上新井占4%。

自那時(shí)以來，2014年底和次年油價(jià)暴跌之后，鉆井活動(dòng)一直呈下降趨勢(shì)。

陸上鉆井活動(dòng)在2016年急劇下降后趨于穩(wěn)定，而海上鉆井活動(dòng)的下降相對(duì)平穩(wěn)。

2020年，由于年初暴發(fā)的新冠肺炎對(duì)全球市場(chǎng)造成嚴(yán)重破壞，該地區(qū)的新鉆井?dāng)?shù)量再次受到影響，與前一年相比減少了50%。2020年南美的鉆井活動(dòng)僅占全球陸上活動(dòng)的2%，海上活動(dòng)的3%。

由于需求恢復(fù)以及石油和天然氣價(jià)格上漲，新井的數(shù)量此后有所增加。鉆井活動(dòng)預(yù)計(jì)將在今年達(dá)到頂峰，然后在本世紀(jì)末出現(xiàn)另一個(gè)下降趨勢(shì)，部分原因是巴西在過去六年中發(fā)現(xiàn)的陸上石油儲(chǔ)量非常低，難以支撐長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)。

未來幾年，該地區(qū)的海上鉆井活動(dòng)仍將保持在全球活動(dòng)的6%左右，陸上鉆井仍將維持在3%左右。

值得注意的是，盡管該地區(qū)海上油井?dāng)?shù)量明顯低于陸上油井?dāng)?shù)量，但海上油井產(chǎn)量占南美洲當(dāng)前產(chǎn)量的近一半，預(yù)計(jì)到2024年，由于巴西和圭亞那的增產(chǎn)，海上油井產(chǎn)量將超過陸上產(chǎn)量。

南美洲另一個(gè)空前活躍的地區(qū)是阿根廷的瓦卡穆爾塔。隨著運(yùn)營(yíng)公司在Neuquén地區(qū)多產(chǎn)的瓦卡穆爾塔頁(yè)巖儲(chǔ)層采用水力壓裂技術(shù)，該國(guó)的產(chǎn)量進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)。

雖然生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)處于歷史高位，但持續(xù)的供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸表明，在未來幾個(gè)季度，增加投入生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)的空間不大。

然而，考慮到該盆地的早期開發(fā)和改善型曲線，基礎(chǔ)遞減率仍然很低，未來幾年石油產(chǎn)量仍將顯著增長(zhǎng)。

根據(jù)雷斯塔能源的研究顯示，該地區(qū)的產(chǎn)量明年初可能超過30萬桶/天，到2024年進(jìn)一步增加到40萬桶/天，幫助該國(guó)的總產(chǎn)量反彈到近20年來從未見過的水平。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機(jī)地帶

原文如下:

Drilling In South America Set To Peak During 2022

Drilling and completion activity in South America is expected to peak this year after a significant slowdown in 2020 due to the global demand destruction brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic, Rystad Energy claimed.

According to Rystad, the rebound is more pronounced for offshore wells, primarily driven by an uptick in activity in Brazil and Guyana. With the overall recovery in drilling, South America is also winning back a global market share of new wells drilled, with offshore proving the standout sector.

New wells drilled in South America in 2014 contributed to 8 percent of new wells globally in the offshore sector and 4 percent in the onshore.

Activity has been on a downward trend since then following the slump in oil prices in late 2014 and the following year. 

onshore drilling activity had a steep drop in 2016 before stabilizing, while offshore drilling activity saw a relatively smoother decline.

The number of new wells drilled in the region was hit again in 2020 with a 50 percent decrease recorded compared to the previous year, as the outbreak of Covid early in the year wreaked havoc on global markets. Drilling activity in South America in 2020 represented only 2 percent of the global onshore activity and 3 percent of offshore.

The number of new wells has since increased due to the return of demand and the oil and gas price increase. Activity is expected to peak this year before going on another downward trend towards the end of the decade, partially due to Brazil having very low discovered onshore volumes in the last six years, making it difficult to support long-term growth.

Offshore drilling activity in the region will remain at around 6 percent of global activity over the coming years, while onshore drilling will remain at around 3 percent.

It should be noted that, while the offshore well count in the region is significantly lower than that of onshore, offshore production makes up nearly half of South America’s current output and is expected to exceed onshore production by 2024 due to increases in Brazil and Guyana.

Another region in South America that is seeing all-time high activity is Argentina’s Vaca Muerta. The country recorded further production growth records, as operators step up fracking in the prolific Vaca Muerta shale formation in Neuquén.

While activity is at an all-time high, persistent supply chain bottlenecks suggest there is not a lot of room for incremental put-on production activity in the next few quarters.

Yet, with base decline remaining low given the basin’s early phase of development and the improving type curves, oil output is still poised for significant growth in the coming years.

The region’s production could exceed 300,000 barrels per day early next year, expanding further to 400,000 bpd in 2024, helping the country’s total rebound to levels not seen in nearly 20 years, Rystad Energy research shows.