據(jù)世界石油4月1日?qǐng)?bào)道，一份新的石油和天然氣市場(chǎng)更新報(bào)告顯示，美國(guó)油氣行業(yè)有望看到持續(xù)的需求復(fù)蘇和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資和就業(yè)法案的通過(guò)帶來(lái)的積極影響，但美國(guó)的監(jiān)管環(huán)境去年有所收緊。這份油氣市場(chǎng)更新報(bào)告的撰寫(xiě)者叫帕特里克·麥克羅里，他與Lathrop GPM合作，使用美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)的報(bào)告和數(shù)據(jù)、聯(lián)邦政府和州政府的記錄、國(guó)家和地方新聞，以及律師事務(wù)所從業(yè)人員的知識(shí)和經(jīng)驗(yàn)。

麥克羅里表示，盡管到2022年為止，油氣行業(yè)的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境已經(jīng)發(fā)生了迅速變化，但該報(bào)告仍然具有重要意義。 他說(shuō)：“大部分分析都集中在美國(guó)的監(jiān)管環(huán)境和行業(yè)的長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展趨勢(shì)上。”這包括拜登政府繼續(xù)關(guān)注氣候變化和能源轉(zhuǎn)型時(shí)預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)發(fā)生的變化。 報(bào)告指出，投資者的壓力和公眾的認(rèn)知一直是，并將繼續(xù)是環(huán)境、社會(huì)和治理(ESG)問(wèn)題的重要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素，主要關(guān)注“E”（環(huán)境）。

麥克羅里說(shuō)，“我認(rèn)為，油氣行業(yè)如何處理ESG問(wèn)題的更新尤為重要。 ESG現(xiàn)在是，而且我相信將繼續(xù)是公眾和投資者的熱門(mén)話題。”“雖然這是一個(gè)熱門(mén)話題，但我們?cè)噲D幫助公眾理解它在實(shí)踐中的意義。這份報(bào)告提供了對(duì)油氣行業(yè)如何執(zhí)行ESG倡議的深刻理解。”

報(bào)告稱，油氣行業(yè)面臨的ESG相關(guān)壓力主要與降低碳排放有關(guān)。該報(bào)告指出，總部位于巴黎的國(guó)際能源署(IEA)制定了到2050年前實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放的路線圖，該路線圖概述了實(shí)現(xiàn)溫室氣體減排的宏偉設(shè)想。

報(bào)告稱，油氣企業(yè)正在響應(yīng)投資者對(duì)ESG的關(guān)注，從而采取了一些措施，如使用數(shù)字技術(shù)來(lái)增強(qiáng)它們報(bào)告ESG的能力。報(bào)告指出，聯(lián)邦基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施法案在很大程度上是有利于油氣公司的，并補(bǔ)充說(shuō)，它為道路改善提供了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的資金，這應(yīng)該會(huì)增加對(duì)瀝青的需求，對(duì)石油來(lái)說(shuō)也是一個(gè)好兆頭。

根據(jù)該報(bào)告，2022年的長(zhǎng)期需求看起來(lái)仍然樂(lè)觀。 投資銀行分析師預(yù)計(jì)，今年油價(jià)將繼續(xù)走高，預(yù)計(jì)將處在每桶90美元-100美元的范圍內(nèi)。

國(guó)際能源署的一份報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，在2021年全球石油需求日增540萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量的基礎(chǔ)上，今年全球石油需求將日增330萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量。 報(bào)告稱，按照這個(gè)速度，全球石油日需求量將達(dá)到9940萬(wàn)桶，這將回到疫情前的水平。

盡管地緣政治沖突可能會(huì)促使一些投資者轉(zhuǎn)向可再生能源，以減少對(duì)油氣進(jìn)口的依賴，但麥克羅里并不認(rèn)為當(dāng)前的能源價(jià)格會(huì)影響對(duì)可再生能源或替代能源的長(zhǎng)期投資。

麥克羅里說(shuō)，“因此，我認(rèn)為我們不會(huì)看到計(jì)劃中的資本支出大幅重新配置。在短期內(nèi)，生產(chǎn)商肯定有利用有利能源價(jià)格的動(dòng)機(jī)，許多生產(chǎn)商使用金融工具來(lái)對(duì)沖這種類型的波動(dòng)，因此，重新配置資本以支持短期生產(chǎn)可能沒(méi)有真正的、可識(shí)別的好處。”

麥克羅里說(shuō)，許多能源生產(chǎn)商將替代能源技術(shù)視為對(duì)其油氣資產(chǎn)的一種補(bǔ)充，這可能是長(zhǎng)期的重點(diǎn)。 報(bào)告還分析了科羅拉多州、新墨西哥州、北達(dá)科他州、俄克拉何馬州、得克薩斯州和懷俄明州監(jiān)管環(huán)境的影響。

李峻 編譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

Oil & gas market report expects continued demand increases this year

A new market update report shows the U.S. oil and gas (O&G) industry can expect to see continued demand recovery and positive effects from the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, but regulatory environments tightened last year. The Oil & Gas Market Update report is authored by Patrick McRorie, a partner with Lathrop GPM, using U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports and data, federal and state government records, national and local news, and the knowledge and experience of the law firm’s practitioners, among other sources.

Though the oil and gas industry has already seen rapidly changing market conditions so far in 2022, the report continues to be relevant, McRorie said. “Much of the analysis focuses on the U.S. regulatory environment and longer-term trends in the industry,” he said. That includes the changes expected as the Biden administration continues to focus on climate change and energy transition. Investor pressure and public perception has been, and will continue to be, a significant driver of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues, with primary focus on the “E,”

“I think the updates on how the industry is approaching ESG issues is especially important. ESG is, and I believe will continue to be, a hot topic, both with the public and with investors,” McRorie said. “While it is a hot topic of discussion, we are trying to help the audience understand what it means in practice. The report provides insight into how the industry is, or in certain cases isn’t, executing on ESG initiatives.”

The ESG-related pressure on O& G mainly relates to carbon-lowering initiatives, the report said, noting the Paris-based IEA’s Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050, which outlines ambitious scenarios to achieve greenhouse gas emissions reductions.

Companies are responding to investor attention on ESG, resulting in efforts like using digital technologies to enhance their ESG capabilities for reporting, according to the report. The federal infrastructure bill is largely O&G-friendly, the report notes, adding that it provides record funding for road improvements, which should increase demand for asphalt and is a good sign for oil.

Long-term demand for 2022 continues to look positive, according to the report. Investment bank analysts expect higher oil prices to continue this year, with forecasts in the $90-100/bbl range.

An IEA report referenced expects global oil demand to grow by 3.3 MMboed in 2022, following growth of 5.4 MMboed in 2021. At this pace, demand will reach 99.4 MMboed, which is a return to pre-pandemic levels, the report states.

While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may push some investors toward renewable energy to reduce reliance on  O&G, McRorie doesn’t think the current energy prices affect long-term investment in renewable or alternative fuel sources.

“As such, I don’t think we are going to see significant reallocations in planned capital expenditure,” McRorie said. “In the short-run, producers certainly possess an incentive to capitalize on favorable energy prices … Many producers use financial instruments to hedge against this type of volatility, so there may not be a real, recognizable benefit to reallocating capital in favor of short-term production.”

Many energy producers are looking at alternative energy technologies as a compliment to their O&G assets, which is likely done with long-term focus, he said. The report also breaks down implications of the regulatory environments in Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas and Wyoming. To see the full report,