據今日油價網站1月22日消息 世界第三大石油生產國俄羅斯在歐佩克+生產協議上的態度一直是個未知數，該協議限制參與者的石油產量，以支持更高的價格。在新冠疫情爆發后，莫斯科與沙特阿拉伯就生產配額問題展開了爭論，這是由于原油價格的暴跌，原油價格首次跌入負向所致。北美基準的西德克薩斯中質原油在復蘇前跌至每桶負37.63美元，布倫特原油沒有進入國際基準的負區間，而是跌至每桶不到15美元的盤中低點。

在此期間，莫斯科、利雅得和其他歐佩克+簽署國終于能夠就產量配額達成一致。隨著歐佩克逐漸擴大在第19次部長級會議上確認的協議中規定的生產配額，關于全球石油供應將擴大多少以及這將如何影響原油價格的猜測相當多。

猜測的一個關鍵點是，俄羅斯是否能夠按照其歐佩克+配額的計劃和允許增長其原油產量，并推測世界第三大石油生產國正在或接近產能。根據能源部的說法，2021年12月，俄羅斯每天平均開采1090.3萬桶原油和凝析油，這一數字比2021年11月的1090.6萬桶略低，但比去年同期高出8.4%。

政府數據顯示，2021年間的全年油氣凝析油產量平均為1050萬桶，比上年同期高出2%以上。預計俄羅斯的原油產量將在2022年進一步擴大。能源部預測，預計每日平均原油產量將攀升至1084萬-1105萬桶，比2021年增加3%-5%。

盡管擔心俄羅斯石油行業達到該產能，但副總理亞歷山大·諾瓦克在 2021年10月聲稱有足夠的空間擴大原油產量。諾瓦克是克里姆林宮與歐佩克的主要談判代表，他聲稱俄羅斯擁有足夠的閑置產能，可以將產量提高到每天超過1100萬桶。

為了支持這一說法，副總理引用了早先的生產記錄，即在新冠疫情迫使運營關閉之前，俄羅斯在2020年2月產量多達1140萬桶/日。盡管一些分析師認為這無法實現，但行業咨詢公司雷斯塔能源在2021年8月的新聞稿中預測，2022年7月俄羅斯的石油產量將創下新紀錄。雷斯塔透露，這個世界第三大石油生產商將在該月生產1160萬桶/日的石油，如果實現這一目標，與2021年同月相比將顯著增長11%。該咨詢公司繼續預測，世界第三最大石油生產國的產量將繼續增長，到2023年中期達到1220萬桶/日的峰值。

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價

原文如下：

Russia’s Oil Output Could Peak In 2023

Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer, has long been an unknown when it comes to the OPEC+ production agreement which caps the petroleum output of participants to support higher prices. It was Moscow’s spat with Saudi Arabia over production quotas in early 2020 which, combined with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, caused crude oil prices to plunge into negative territory for the first time ever. The North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate plunged to minus $37.63 per barrel before recovering, while Brent did not enter negative territory the international benchmark, plunged to an intraday low of less than $15 per barrel. During that time Moscow, Riyadh and other OPEC+ signatories were finally able to agree on production quotas. However, Moscow’s economic ambitions remain a threat to the agreement’s firmness, particularly with Washington threatening further sanctions. With OPEC gradually expanding production quotas set out in the agreement confirmed at the 19th ministerial meeting, there is considerable speculation as to how much global petroleum supply will expand and how that will affect crude oil prices. A key point of conjecture is whether Russia can grow its crude oil output as planned and allowed by its OPEC+ quota, with it speculated that the world’s third-largest oil producer is operating at or near capacity. For December 2021 Russia, according to the Ministry of Energy, pumped an average of 10.903 million barrels of crude oil and gas condensate daily. That number was marginally lower than the 10.906 million barrels produced per day for November 2021 but an impressive 8.4% higher compared to the same period a year earlier.

Government data shows that total annual oil and gas condensate production during 2021 averaged 10.5 million barrels per day, which is over 2% higher than a year earlier. It is anticipated that Russia’s crude oil output will expand further during 2022. The energy ministry predicts that forecast average annual daily crude oil output will climb to between 10.84 million and 11.05 million barrels, which is a 3% to 5% increase over 2021.

Despite concerns that Russia’s petroleum industry reaching production capacity Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, in October 2021, claimed there is ample room to expand crude oil output. Novak, who is the Kremlin’s key negotiator with OPEC, claimed Russia possesses sufficient spare capacity to ramp up production to over 11 million barrels per day. To support this assertion the deputy prime minister cited earlier production records where Russia was pumping up to 11.4 million barrels daily, in February 2020, before the COVID-19 pandemic hit forcing operational shut-ins. While some analysts believe this is not achievable, industry consultancy Rystad Energy, in an August 2021 press release, predicted that Russia’s petroleum production during July 2022 will hit a new record. Rystad is tipping that the world’s third-largest oil producer will pump 11.6 million barrels per day during that month which, if achieved, represents a notable 11% increase compared to the same month in 2021. The consultancy went on to forecast that the world’s third-largest oil producer’s output will continue growing, peaking at 12.2 million barrels per day by mid-2023. 

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