據世界能源網站12月14日報道，歐佩克上調了2022年第一季度的全球石油需求預測，但保留了全年增長預測，因為該組織表示，奧密克戎冠狀病毒變體將產生溫和影響。

該組織表示，預計新的奧密克戎變體的影響“將是溫和和短暫的，因為世界將更好地應對疫情及其相關挑戰”。該公司同時預測，盡管存在全球通貨膨脹的擔憂和供應鏈瓶頸，但發達經濟體和新興經濟體的經濟都將穩步增長。

歐佩克做出上述評估之際，油價繼續走高，各方對奧密克戎變體沖擊需求的擔憂有所緩解。

經合組織國家的石油需求預計將在2022年增加180萬桶/天，而非經合組織地區的石油需求預計將增加230萬桶/天。

歐佩克表示，這得益于經濟活動的穩定勢頭，尤其是亞洲最大原油消費國、印度和其他亞洲國家。

該組織將2021年全球石油需求增長保持在上月估計的每日570萬桶不變。

歐佩克表示，受美國鉆井和完井活動預計逐步增加的影響，2022年非歐佩克石油供應預計將同比增長300萬桶/天。

預計美國和俄羅斯將貢獻總預期增長的三分之二，其次是巴西、加拿大、哈薩克斯坦、挪威和圭亞那。

賈麗 摘譯自 世界能源

原文如下：

Opec Maintains 2022 Demand Outlook and Expects Mild Impact from Omicron Variant

Opec raised its global oil demand forecast for the first quarter of 2022 but left its full-year growth projection as it said the Omicron coronavirus variant would have a mild impact.

The oil exporters' group expects oil demand to average 99.13 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter of 2022, up 1.11 million bpd from its forecast last month, it said in its monthly bulletin on Monday. World oil demand growth was kept unchanged at 4.2 million bpd and total global consumption at 100.6 million bpd.

The impact of the new Omicron variant is projected to “be mild and short-lived, as the world becomes better equipped to manage Covid-19 and its related challenges”, it said while predicting steady economic growth in both the advanced and emerging economies, despite global inflation concerns and supply chain bottlenecks.

The assessment from Opec comes as oil prices continued to trade higher, amid easing concerns over the Omicron variant hitting demand.

Demand for oil in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries is forecast to grow by 1.8 million bpd in 2022, while the non-OECD region is projected to increase by 2.3 million bpd.

Opec said,“supported by steady momentum in economic activities, particularly the biggest oil-consuming country, India and other Asian countries.”

The group kept world oil demand growth for 2021 unchanged from last month’s assessment of 5.7 million bpd.

Non-Opec supply growth in 2022 is expected to be 3 million bpd year-on-year on the back of an expected gradual increase in drilling and completion activities in the US, Opec said.

The US and Russia are forecast to contribute two thirds of total expected growth, followed by Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, Norway, and Guyana. 

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