據彭博社7月14日報道，由于主要產油國即將大量出口原油的前景十分不明朗，石油價格上漲至兩年半以來的最高水平，同時，國際能源署（IEA）警告稱，供應危機正在加劇。

　　周二，紐約原油期貨價格上漲1.6%，收于每桶75.25美元，為2018年10月以來的最高結算價。IEA在一份報告中稱，在歐佩克+成員國陷入僵局之際，原油供應將"大幅收緊"。

　　Oanda公司的高級市場分析師Ed Moya表示:“供應短缺將再次成為市場主要驅動因素。”

　　美國石油協會（API）表示，上周美國原油供應減少408萬桶，俄克拉荷馬州庫欣（Cushing）這一美國最大的原油儲備中心的庫存也有所下降，期貨價格繼續上漲。

　　隨著疫苗接種的推進加速了各經濟體的重新開放，推高了燃料消費，油價今年已飆升逾50%。歐佩克和其他產油國通過采取循序漸進的方式恢復中斷的供應，支撐油價。

　　但是，由于阿聯酋和沙特阿拉伯之間的爭端持續，該石油財團在增產問題上陷入僵局。8月份，兩國原油產量將均保持穩定。

　　花旗集團(Citigroup Inc.)大宗商品研究主管Ed Morse在一封電子郵件中表示:“即使歐佩克決定在8月份增產，原油也要等到8月份需求高峰期結束后才能到達煉油廠。”

　　價格方面

　　紐約商品交易所8月份交貨的西德克薩斯中質原油交易價格為每桶75.14美元。

　　歐洲期貨交易所9月份交割的布倫特原油價格上漲1.33美元，收于每桶76.49美元。

　　值得一提的是，油價在不斷上漲，但需求反彈仍受到新冠肺炎變異病毒株迅速傳播的威脅。隨著新冠肺炎疫情在尚未完全大面積接種疫苗的東南亞地區傳播，迫使這些地區的工作和出行受到限制。

　　東南亞最大的經濟體印尼正受到一波特別殘酷的疫情的打擊，促使工業中心爪哇和旅游勝地巴厘島采取了限制措施。馬來西亞仍處于全國封鎖之中，而泰國剛剛加強了出行限制。

　　API報告稱，上周汽油供應減少154萬桶，蒸餾油庫存增加370萬桶。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社

　　原文如下：

　　Oil advances to 33-month high on warning about supply crunch

　　Oil rose to the highest price in more than 2 1/2 years as prospects of the major producers waned while the International Energy Agency warned of a deepening supply crunch.

　　Futures in New York advanced 1.6 per cent to close at US$75.25 a barrel on Tuesday, the highest settlement since October 2018. Crude supplies are set to “tighten significantly” amid a deadlock among members of the OPEC+ alliance, the IEA said in a report.

　　“The supply-deficit story is reasserting as the primary driver,” said Ed Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp.

　　Futures clung to gains after the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report U.S. crude supplies fell 4.08 million barrels last week and inventories declined at the nation’s biggest storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma.

　　Oil prices have surged more than 50 per cent this year as vaccination rollouts accelerated the reopening of economies, boosting fuel consumption. OPEC and allied crude producers have supported prices by taking a gradual approach to resurrecting shuttered supplies.

　　The oil consortium has been deadlocked on increasing production as the dispute between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia persists. Both countries have locked in stable crude output for next month.

　　“Even if OPEC decides to raise output in August, that crude will not reach refineries until after the August peak-demand period will be over,” Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., said in an email.

　　Prices

　　West Texas Intermediate for August delivery traded at US$75.14 a barrel at 4:47 p.m. in after-market trading after settling at US$75.25 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

　　Brent for September settlement advanced US$1.33 to end session at US$76.49 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange.

　　Still, the demand rebound is imperiled by the swift spread of the COVID-19 delta variant, which is forcing restrictions on work and mobility as it spreads through a largely unvaccinated Southeast Asia.

　　Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, is being wracked by a particularly brutal wave of the pandemic, prompting restrictions in the industrial heartland of Java and the tourist enclave of Bali. Malaysia is still in the midst of a nationwide lockdown, while Thailand has just stepped up limitations.

　　The API also reported gasoline supplies fell 1.54 million barrels last week and distillate inventories rose 3.7 million barrels.

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