據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站6月28日消息 彭博社周一援引此前看到的卡塔爾石油公司的債券招股說明書報(bào)道稱，全球最大的液化天然氣出口國之一卡塔爾預(yù)計(jì)，全球天然氣需求將在2040年左右的某個(gè)時(shí)候達(dá)到峰值。
據(jù)卡塔爾國有巨頭稱，全球天然氣需求仍有20年的增長空間，而國際能源署（IEA）上月在其2050年前凈零排放報(bào)告中提醒稱，在2050年前凈零排放的情況下，除了今年批準(zhǔn)的那些，世界不需要任何新的油氣田開發(fā)。
根據(jù)國際能源署的凈零遠(yuǎn)景，天然氣將需要在2020年中期達(dá)到峰值，并在21世紀(jì)30年代平均每年下降5%以上。需求將在40年代減緩下降，因?yàn)?050年全球一半以上的天然氣將用于生產(chǎn)氫氣和碳捕獲、利用和儲存（CCUS）。據(jù)該機(jī)構(gòu)稱，這種凈零情景還意味著，2020年至2050年間，液化天然氣貿(mào)易將下降60%，管道輸送的天然氣將下降65%。
然而，國際能源署公布的政策遠(yuǎn)景（STEPS）分析了現(xiàn)有政策和公布政策對能源行業(yè)的影響，預(yù)計(jì)天然氣需求將從2020年的39000億立方米上升到2030年的46000億立方米和2050年的57000億立方米。
王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)
原文如下：
Qatar: Peak Natural Gas Demand To Occur Around 2040
One of the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters, Qatar, expects global natural gas demand to peak at some point around 2040, Bloomberg reported on Monday, quoting a bond prospectus of Qatar Petroleum it had seen.
According to Qatar’s state-owned giant, worldwide natural gas demand still has two decades to grow, unlike the International Energy Agency (IEA), which warned in its Net Zero by 2050 report last month that in a scenario of net-zero emissions by 2050, the world doesn’t need any new oil and gas field developments beyond those sanctioned this year.
According to the IEA net-zero vision, natural gas would need to peak around the mid-2020s and fall by more than 5 percent per year on average in the 2030s. Demand is then set to slow the decline in the 2040s because more than half of natural gas globally in 2050 would be used to produce hydrogen with carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). This net-zero scenario would also mean that LNG trade would drop by 60 percent between 2020 and 2050, and gas carried by pipelines would fall by 65 percent, according to the agency.
However, the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) scenario—examining the consequences of existing and stated policies for the energy sector—sees natural gas demand rising from 3,900 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2020 to 4,600 bcm in 2030 and 5,700 bcm in 2050.
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