據今日油價6月29日報道，拉丁美洲是全球受新冠肺炎疫情影響最嚴重的地區之一。根據世界衛生組織的數據，按病例數排名，巴西位列第三，按死亡人數排名，巴西是第二位。今年年初，有人擔心，這種病毒的迅速蔓延將破壞巴西近海石油行業的繁榮，尤其是在能源行業工人病例激增的情況下。到2021年3月，石油和天然氣產量下降，油氣總產量同比下降近3%，平均每天為360萬桶，且巴西的油氣產量預計將進一步下降。然而，到4月份，業務開始恢復，該國的經濟關鍵——石油產量開始上升。據巴西國家石油、天然氣和生物燃料局(ANP)報告，2021年5月，巴西石油日產量為290萬桶，較上年同期增長6%。天然氣價格大幅上漲18%，達到平均每日846320桶。作為拉丁美洲最大的石油生產國，該地區的油氣產量同比增長了8.5%，平均每天約380萬桶。

　　巴西石油產量增長的一個關鍵驅動力是其鹽下石油盆地的擴張。截至2021年5月，巴西鹽下原油日產量接近270萬桶，較去年同期顯著增長14%，占巴西石油總產量的93%，占總油氣產量的71%。

　　從巴西鹽下油田開采的中低硫原油在煉油商中越來越受歡迎，特別是在亞洲，IMO 2020和其他法規大幅降低了燃料的硫含量。撰寫本文時，Lula原油的API比重為27，含硫量為0.27%，比布倫特原油更重，目前其交易價格幾乎比國際基準價格高出1%。

　　盡管缺乏公開的定價數據，但巴西Buzios原油(API比重為28，含硫量為0.31%，與Lula類似)在亞洲的交易價格通常高于布倫特原油。自2020年底以來，油價持續大幅上漲，無疑強化了這一趨勢。布倫特原油價格的大幅上漲，加上巴西鹽下原油價格高于國際基準價格，是推動巴西近海投資的主要動力。

　　巴西國家石油公司在2021年第一季度發布了一些穩定的業績，該公司將受益于油價上漲，尤其是因為該公司專注于盈虧平衡價格低于每桶35美元的項目。巴西國家石油公司在2021年5月平均每天開采270萬桶原油，較前一個月略有下降，但較上年同期顯著增加了7.7%。這相當于巴西6月石油總產量的73%。巴西國家石油公司2021年5月的油氣總產量環比下降1.6%，但同比增長7.7%，達到350萬桶/天，占巴西油氣總產量的90%以上。這家國有石油公司在降低運營費用方面取得了巨大進展，巴西國家石油公司報告稱，2021年第一季度總體成本為5美元/桶，鹽下油田低至2.70美元/桶，證明了巴西鹽下盆地的低運營成本。

　　在當前的運營環境下，布倫特原油的交易價格超過了76美元/桶，這意味著公司的上游業務非常有利可圖。盡管巴西國家石油公司在2020年大幅削減投資以應對油價大幅下跌，但該公司仍在繼續開發巴西海上的鹽下油田。在2021年至2025年期間，該公司計劃投資170億美元用于建設6個新油田和13艘FPSO。這包括為至關重要的Buzios油田增加4艘FPSO，該油田已成為巴西國家石油公司的關注焦點。

　　巴西海上鹽下油田的低盈虧平衡價格，加上生產的中低硫等級原油的售價可能高于布倫特原油，解釋了外國能源公司投資的原因。ANP的數據顯示，外國石油公司投資的產能目前占巴西油氣產量的五分之一。殼牌是全球最大的石油生產商，僅次于巴西國家石油公司，在2021年5月平均每天生產45萬桶石油，這意味著該公司當月占巴西油氣總產量的12%。殼牌的大部分產量來自Tupi、Sapinhoa和Mero鹽下油田。這家綜合能源巨頭還對Campos盆地的C-10區塊、Ostra、Abalone和Argonauta鹽后油田感興趣。殼牌今年年初宣布，計劃于2021年下半年在巴西近海開展鉆井活動，重點是C-10區塊。

　　2021年，巴西預計將啟動兩輪招標，第一輪預計在10月份，這將是第17輪招標，原定于2020年，但由于油價暴跌而推遲。將有近100個石油區塊進行招標，包括Campos盆地的15個區塊、pelota盆地的50個區塊、Santos盆地的13個區塊和Potiguar盆地的14個區塊。這些進展對巴西的海上石油繁榮來說是個好兆頭，將使該國碳氫化合物產量不斷增長，從而鞏固這個拉丁美洲國家在全球十大產油國中的地位。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的數據顯示，巴西去年的國內生產總值(gdp)萎縮了4%，這波繁榮將為巴西迫切需要的經濟復蘇提供強大推動力。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　Brazil's Oil Boom Continues Unabated

　　Latin America’s largest oil producer Brazil is one of the worst affected countries globally by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the World Health Organization, Brazil is the third ranked country by volume of cases and second by deaths. There were fears earlier this year that the rapid spread of the virus would derail Brazil’s offshore oil boom, particularly with a surge in cases among energy sector workers. By March 2021 petroleum and natural gas production was in decline with total hydrocarbon output falling by nearly 3% year over year to an average of 3.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Such was the severity of the pandemic and sharp increase in cases Brazil’s hydrocarbon production was expected to fall further. Nevertheless, by April operations began to recover and the country’s economically critical oil output was rising. For May 2021 Brazil’s hydrocarbon regulator, the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP – Portuguese initials), reported (Portuguese) oil production of 2.9 million barrels daily, an impressive 6% higher than a year earlier. Natural gas shot up by a stunning 18% to an average of 846,320 barrels of oil equivalent daily. The hydrocarbon output from Latin America’s largest oil producer expanded by an impressive 8.5% year over year to an average of nearly 3.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

　　Branco was eventually forced to step down to be replaced by former army general Joaquim Silva e Luna. That sparked considerable fear among investors and financial markets of a resurgence in resource nationalism along with heavy-handed government intervention. A key driver of Brazil’s growing petroleum production is the expansion in its pre-salt oil basins. By May 2021 pre-salt oil production was just under 2.7 million barrels daily, a notable 14% increase compared to the same period a year earlier, making it responsible for 93% of Brazil’s oil output and 71% of total hydrocarbon production.

　　The sweet medium grade crude oil grades pumped from Brazil’s pre-salt oilfields are growing in popularity among refiners, particularly in Asia where IMO 2020 and other regulations have sharply reduced the sulfur content of fuels. At the time of writing this article Lula, which has an API gravity of 27 degrees and 0.27% sulfur content, making it heavier but sweeter than Brent, is trading at almost a 1% premium to the international benchmark price.

　　Despite a lack of public pricing data Brazil’s Buzios crude oil grade with an API gravity of 28 degrees and 0.31% sulfur content, which are similar characteristics to Lula, typically trades at a premium to Brent in Asia. The popularity of Brazil’s sweet medium crude oil grades coupled with low breakeven prices, estimated to average around $50 per barrel and be under $40 per for the major pre-salt oilfields, makes it a hot destination for foreign energy companies. This is certainly enhanced by the epic oil price rally which has been underway since late 2020. Significantly higher Brent prices coupled with Brazilian pre-salt crude oil grades selling at a premium to the international benchmark act as major incentives for investment in offshore Brazil.

　　Petrobras, which reported some solid first quarter 2021 results, will benefit from these higher oil prices especially because it is focusing on projects with a breakeven price of less than $35 per barrel. Brazil’s national oil company pumped an average of 2.7 million barrels of crude oil daily during May 2021, representing a slight decline from a month earlier but a notable 7.7% greater than a year earlier. That amounts to 73% of Brazil’s total petroleum production for the month. Petrobras’ overall May 2021 hydrocarbon output fell 1.6% month over month but climbed by a healthy 7.7% year over year to 3.5 million barrels per day, making the company responsible for over 90% of Brazil’s total hydrocarbon production. The national oil company has made tremendous progress with reducing operating expenses. For the first quarter of 2021, Petrobras reported overall lifting costs of $5 per barrel, which were as low as $2.70 a barrel for pre-salt oilfields, attesting to the low operating costs associated with Brazil’s pre-salt basins.

　　The integrated energy major’s total cost per barrel of oil produced during the quarter being a low $32 means Petrobras’ upstream operations are highly profitable in the current operating environment where Brent is trading at over $76 a barrel. While Petrobras in 2020 sharply dialed back investment in response to substantially weaker oil prices, it is pressing ahead with developing pre-salt oilfields in offshore Brazil. Between 2021 and 2025 it intends to invest $17 billion in capital expenditures to bring six new oilfields and 13 FPSOs online.

　　The low breakeven prices for Brazil’s offshore pre-salt oilfields coupled with the potential for the sweet medium crude oil produced to sell at a premium to Brent, explains why foreign energy companies are investing. ANP data shows foreign oil companies are now responsible for a fifth of Brazil’s hydrocarbon output. It is global supermajor Shell which is the second-largest oil producer in Brazil after Petrobras, pumping an average of around 450,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day during May 2021. That sees the Anglo-Dutch supermajor responsible for 12% of Brazil’s total hydrocarbon output during that month. Shell derives most of its production from the Tupi, Sapinhoa, and Mero pre-salt oilfields. The integrated energy supermajor also has interests in the C-10 block, Ostra, Abalone, and Argonauta post-salt fields in the Campos Basin. Shell announced earlier this year plans for a drilling campaign in offshore Brazil for the second half of 2021 with a focus on the C-10 block.

　　Brazil is expected to launch two bid rounds this year, with the first expected in October which will be the 17th bidding round, originally scheduled for 2020 but postponed because of the oil price collapse. There will be nearly 100 oil blocks put up for tender including 15 blocks in the Campos basin, 50 in the Pelotas basin, 13 in the Santos basin, and 14 in the Potiguar basin. Those developments bode well for Brazil’s offshore oil boom, leading to growing hydrocarbon production cementing the Latin American country’s position among the world’s top-10 oil-producing countries. The boom will act as a powerful driver of Brazil’s urgently needed post-pandemic economic recovery after its gross domestic product shrank 4% last year according to IMF data.

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