據今日油價6月15日報道，兩家大宗商品交易巨頭在俄羅斯的一個石油項目上押下了重注，這一罕見舉動或將決定了石油交易商的命運，石油市場觀察人士應該密切關注這一動向。當大宗商品交易巨頭托克(Trafigura)收購俄羅斯石油公司(Rosneft) Vostok Oil項目10%的股份時，油價還在每桶50美元以下。當時，有人預測，石油需求可能永遠無法恢復到新冠肺炎疫情爆發前的水平，而且石油產業總體上正在削減。
如今，托克的同行維托爾(Vitol)也加入了對東西伯利亞原油的投資。Vitol與Mercantile & Maritime組成一個財團，上周與俄羅斯石油公司達成協議，收購該大型項目5%的權益。路透社將該項目與上世紀70年代西伯利亞西部的石油開發以及最近美國巴肯(Bakken)的石油開發進行了比較。
Vostok Oil項目完全配得上其“超級項目”的稱號。據估計，Vostok項目的原油儲量為26億噸，相當于約190億桶，一旦滿負荷生產，該項目涵蓋的油田每年可生產至多1億噸原油。俄羅斯石油公司估計，這些油田的儲量高達440億桶。
開發這個龐大項目的成本僅為1400億美元(10萬億盧布)。這樣的價格，在油價為每桶35-40美元的情況下，該項目仍有望盈利。
一些中長期預測顯示，由于能源轉型，油價將維持在這個水平。然而，并非所有人都同意這一觀點，尤其是在大家都目睹了主要消費市場的石油需求反彈速度非常快的情況下。布倫特原油價格目前超過每桶72美元，就連西德克薩斯中質原油(West Texas Intermediate)本周也突破了每桶70美元的大關。已經有人在談論油價會達到每桶100美元了，不過這個預測結果可能需要做些調整。
俄羅斯石油公司首席執行官伊戈爾?謝欽(Igor Sechin)本月初在主題演講中表示:“世界在消費石油，但還沒有準備投資。石油巨頭減少石油和天然氣勘探和生產的低碳計劃，將導致供應短缺。這種趨勢(較低的上游投資)可能成為全球專業油氣公司的‘新常態’，并導致基礎資源枯竭，世界面臨著石油和天然氣嚴重短缺的風險。”
不可否認的是，領導開發東西伯利亞數十億桶石油儲備的公司負責人在預測供應不足的情況下，有既得利益，這將確保這一大型項目的可持續性開發。不過，謝欽并不是唯一一個預測石油和天然氣會因新產量投資不足而出現供應不足的人。
國際能源署（IEA）在5月曾呼吁，最遲在今年年底或2022年之前，停止新的石油和天然氣勘探投資，令能源界震驚。IEA表示，如果世界希望達到2050年的凈零目標，減少投資是必須的。但在其最新的月度石油報告中，該機構呼吁歐佩克+提高產量，以避免油價進一步飆升，同時還上調了今年和明年的需求預期。
這意味著，即使是對石油需求的短期預測，也存在著挑戰，那么對長期石油需求的預測將更具挑戰性。因此，托克和維托爾所做的這個投資，是大宗商品交易商為長期石油需求做規劃的罕見例子。
路透社在一篇報道中指出，大宗商品交易商直接投資上游油氣項目的做法并不常見。然而，Vostok項目顯然是個例外，因為它為這些交易商提供了全球主要需求增長市場，即亞洲的長期穩定供應。
歐洲正在進行能源轉型，美國則有所滯后。但在亞洲最大國家，盡管擁有大量風能和太陽能發電能力，原油仍將發揮關鍵作用。而俄羅斯的東西伯利亞油田通過北海航線距離很近，這將保持石油的競爭力。
托克以88.3億美元(73億歐元)的價格收購了Vostok項目10%的股份，其中大部分資金來自一家俄羅斯銀行的貸款，但這位大宗商品交易商確實將自己的18.2億美元(約合15億歐元)現金押在了這個俄羅斯項目上。有關維托爾交易的細節尚未披露，但托克的股權價格在一定程度上表明了第二筆交易的價值。
當一家大宗商品交易商罕見地對一個油氣生產項目進行直接投資時，這一點值得引起關注。尤其是在就政治方面的勝算似乎與石油產業發展背道而馳的時候，仍這么做，此類投資的消息就變得更加重要。這意味著政治方面來說是一回事，實際能源需求又是另一回事。
王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價
原文如下：
Two Top Commodity Traders Bet Big On The Future Of Oil
Two commodity trading giants are betting big on a Russian oil project in a rare move that could make or break the oil traders’ fates - and oil market observers should be paying close attention. When commodity trading major Trafigura bought a 10-percent stake in Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project, oil prices were trading below $50 per barrel. There were also forecasts that oil demand may never recover to pre-pandemic levels and that oil, in general, was on its way out.
Now, Trafigura’s peer Vitol has joined the company in its bet on eastern Siberian crude. Vitol, in a consortium with Mercantile & Maritime, sealed a deal with Rosneft last week for the acquisition of a 5-percent interest in the megaproject. Reuters has compared the project with the oil development of western Siberia in the 1970s and the U.S. Bakken play more recently.
Vostok Oil fully deserves its megaproject title. With reserves estimated at 2.6 billion tons of crude, equal to some 19 billion barrels, the group of fields that the Vostok Project spans could produce up to 100 million tons of crude annually once it reaches full capacity. Rosneft itself estimates the reserves of the fields at up to 44 billion barrels.
The cost of developing the vast project is only fitting, at some $140 billion (10 trillion rubles) throughout its lifetime. Even with such a price tag, the project is expected to be profitable at an oil price of $35-40 per barrel.
Some medium- to long-term oil price forecasts see oil at these levels because of the energy transition. However, not all agree, especially now that we are all witnessing how fast oil demand is rebounding in key consuming markets. Brent crude is trading at more than $72 per barrel, and even West Texas Intermediate this week crossed the $70 threshold. There is already talk about $100 oil. Forecasts may need to be revised.
“The world consumes oil, but is not ready to invest in it,” Rosneft’s chief executive Igor Sechin said earlier this month in his keynote speech. In the same speech, Sehin warned that Big Oil’s low-carbon plan to reduce oil and gas exploration and production would lead to a deficit of supply.
“This trend [of low upstream investment] may become a ‘new norm’ for global majors and result in resource base depletion. The world runs the risk of facing an acute deficit of oil and gas,” Sechin said.
Of course, the head of the company leading the development of all those billions of barrels in eastern Siberian oil reserves has a vested interest in forecasting a deficit that would ensure the sustainability of the megaproject. The thing is, Sechin is far from the only one predicting a deficit of oil and gas due to low investments in new production.
The International Energy Agency last month shocked the energy world by calling for an end to new oil and gas exploration investment by the end of this year or 2022 at the latest. This would be required, the IEA said, if the world hopes to reach its 2050 net-zero goals. Yet in its latest monthly oil report, the same agency called on OPEC+ to boost production to avoid a further spike in oil prices. It also revised up its demand outlook for this year and next.
What this means is that even short-term forecasts about oil demand are a challenge. If they are a challenge, then it would be reasonable to suggest that long-term demand forecasts would be even more challenging. And what Trafigura and Vitol are doing is a rare example of commodity traders planning for long-term oil demand.
Reuters noted in a report on the Vitol news that it is not common practice among commodity traders to invest directly in upstream oil and gas projects. However, Vostok Oil is obviously an exception because it offers them access to long-term stable supply for the world’s key demand growth market: Asia.
The energy transition is underway in Europe and, with a lag, in the United States. But in Asia, for all the wind and solar generation capacity of the biggest country, crude oil will continue to play a pivotal role. And Russia’s eastern Siberian fields are a comfortably short distance away via the Northern Sea Route, which will keep the oil competitive.
Trafigura paid some $$8.83 billion (7.3 billion euro) for its 10 percent in Vostok Oil. Most of the money came from a loan from a Russian bank, but the commodity trader did wager $1.82 billion (1.5 billion euro) of its own cash on the Russian project. Details about the Vitol deal have not been disclosed, but the Trafigura stake price tag is some indication about the second deal’s value.
When a commodity trader makes a rare direct investment in an oil and gas production project, it is worth noting. When the commodity trader does it at a time when the odds—at least the political odds—seem to be stacked against oil, the news of such an investment becomes even more important. It means that politics is one thing and actual energy demand reality is another.
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