據油價網6月4日報道,俄羅斯財會商會(Russian Accounts Chamber)主席阿列克謝?庫德林(Alexei Kudrin)本周對媒體表示,全球煤炭消費已經超過峰值,未來10年內可能會達到石油消費峰值。
這位官員指出,未來十年,俄羅斯需要學會減少對石油出口收入的依賴。其補充道,否則,20年后,這將成為一個嚴重的問題。
庫德林表示,與此同時,現在有必要進行投資,使俄羅斯經濟多元化,不再依賴石油。他指出,俄羅斯正在朝著這個方向采取措施,特別是在經濟數字化和科學創新方面。也許我們應該早點開始朝這個方向努力。
財會商會負責人的評論與俄羅斯財政部副部長早些時候的評論相呼應。
Vladimir Kolychev在去年的一次采訪中告訴彭博社,消費高峰可能已經過去,從長遠來看,風險正在上升。
俄羅斯近來更加關注石油需求高峰的前景,俄羅斯議會能源委員會主席杜馬今年4月曾表示,“一切能生產的都應該在仍有需求出售的時候生產”。
與其他大型石油出口國一樣,俄羅斯將尋求盡可能快地將其油氣資源貨幣化。
俄羅斯是世界三大石油出口國之一,與沙特阿拉伯和美國并駕齊驅。該國的石油儲量至少可以維持目前的產量到2080年,天然氣儲量也可以再維持103年。政府還投入了數十億美元——準確地說是1100億美元——在東西伯利亞開發新的石油儲備,每年開發1億噸新原油。這大約是該國2019年年產量的五分之一。
郝芬 譯自 油價網
原文如下:
Peak Oil Demand May Be Ten Years Away
The world is past peak coal consumption and may reach peak oil consumption within the next ten years, Alexei Kudrin, the head of the Russian Accounts Chamber, told media this week.
The official noted Russia will need to learn to rely less on oil export revenues over these next ten years. Otherwise, Kudrin added, this will become a serious problem in 20 years.
Meanwhile, investments are necessary now to diversify the Russian economy away from oil, Kudrin said, noting steps being made in that direction, specifically in the digitalization of the economy and in science and innovation.
"Maybe we should have started working in that direction a bit sooner," the official said.
The remarks of the Accounts Chamber's head echo earlier comments made by Russia's deputy financial minister.
"The peak of consumption may have already passed," Vladimir Kolychev told Bloomberg in an interview last year. "The risk is rising in the longer term."
Russia has been paying more attention to the prospect of peak oil demand recently, with the head of the energy committee at the Russian parliament, the Duma, saying in April that "Everything that can be produced should be produced while there is still demand to sell it."
Like other large oil exporters, Russia will be seeking to monetize as much of its oil and gas resources as quickly as it can.
Russia is one of the three biggest oil exporters in the world, alongside Saudi Arabia and the United States. It has enough oil to keep producing at current rates at least until 2080, with enough gas reserves to last for another 103 years. And the state is pouring billions—$110 billion to be precise—into developing new oil reserves in eastern Siberia to tap 100 million tons of new crude annually. That's about a fifth of the country's annual output in 2019.
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