據(jù)世界石油5月31日倫敦報(bào)道，全球天然氣行業(yè)正處于一場(chǎng)生死攸關(guān)的競(jìng)賽中:要么找到一種方式成為下一代能源的一部分，要么冒著被替代能源取代的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　BP、挪威國(guó)家石油公司(Equinor)和荷蘭皇家殼牌等石油生產(chǎn)商都在尋求氫氣，以幫助確保需求，否則隨著脫碳速度加快，需求可能會(huì)減弱。他們希望利用現(xiàn)有的管道、儲(chǔ)油罐和燃料供應(yīng)來制造藍(lán)氫，這是一種使用天然氣但捕獲碳排放并將其儲(chǔ)存的過程。

　　實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放的最直接途徑是使用可再生電力生產(chǎn)的氫——業(yè)內(nèi)稱之為“綠色氫”——但隨著風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能的普及，預(yù)計(jì)至少到2030年，藍(lán)色氫的價(jià)格將會(huì)更便宜。天然氣公司現(xiàn)在的目標(biāo)是降低排放，避免在未來十年被淘汰，它們正計(jì)劃投入數(shù)十億美元建設(shè)自己的藍(lán)色業(yè)務(wù)。到2027年，英國(guó)、德國(guó)、挪威、荷蘭、瑞典和新西蘭將至少有15個(gè)項(xiàng)目上線。

　　總部位于挪威斯塔萬(wàn)格的Equinor負(fù)責(zé)開發(fā)和生產(chǎn)的執(zhí)行副總裁阿爾·庫(kù)克表示:“綠色是目的地，但我們將通過一條藍(lán)色高速公路到達(dá)目的地。在某種程度上，綠色氫可能比藍(lán)色氫的成本更低，但這可能至少在10年內(nèi)不會(huì)發(fā)生。”

　　到2050年，清潔氫能滿足世界四分之一的能源需求，年銷售額達(dá)到6300億歐元(7700億美元)。據(jù)彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)報(bào)道，藍(lán)色氫的生產(chǎn)需要迅速擴(kuò)大，因?yàn)榈?030年無法上線的項(xiàng)目將面臨失去競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　目前，在不排放溫室氣體的情況下，氫的制造成本很高，難以儲(chǔ)存，而且極易燃燒，因此美國(guó)宇航局(NASA)用它來推動(dòng)火箭進(jìn)入太空。

　　盡管如此，國(guó)際能源署(IEA)在5月18日公布的凈零排放路線圖中表示，隨著交通、鋼鐵和化工行業(yè)采取行動(dòng)減少污染，到2050年的需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)6倍。

　　如今，幾乎所有的氫氣生產(chǎn)都使用天然氣。這引起了試圖減緩氣候變化的 ESG 投資者、環(huán)保組織和政府的蔑視，因?yàn)樽畛Ｒ姷姆椒ǎQ為蒸汽-甲烷重整，也會(huì)產(chǎn)生大量的二氧化碳，排放到空氣中。最快速的補(bǔ)救方法是捕獲碳并將其儲(chǔ)存在地下或重復(fù)利用。這種工藝已經(jīng)存在了幾十年，通常應(yīng)用于天然氣廠、肥料制造和乙醇生產(chǎn)設(shè)施。

　　目前，天然氣比可再生電力便宜，即使增加了碳捕獲和儲(chǔ)存的成本，藍(lán)氫仍具有優(yōu)勢(shì)。

　　殼牌負(fù)責(zé)氫能業(yè)務(wù)副總裁保羅·博格斯表示，加強(qiáng)碳捕獲意味著藍(lán)色氫能項(xiàng)目可以從第一天開始大規(guī)模推出。這家總部位于荷蘭的公司參與了多個(gè)項(xiàng)目，包括英國(guó)的Acorn項(xiàng)目和Net Zero Teesside項(xiàng)目，這兩個(gè)項(xiàng)目都計(jì)劃于2025年上線。

　　將天然氣換成氫氣，是能源公司為滿足越來越嚴(yán)格的減排要求而努力的一種方式。殼牌此前承諾在10年內(nèi)將溫室氣體排放量減少20%，但海牙的一家法院在5月26日命令該公司在同一時(shí)期內(nèi)將排放量削減45%。

　　天然氣公司的緊迫性源于對(duì)綠色氫的普遍支持，這種氫由水和可再生電力制成。到2030年，綠色氫的成本預(yù)計(jì)將下降80%，在彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)分析的所有28個(gè)市場(chǎng)中，綠色氫作為可再生能源和使用它來降低氫的電解槽的價(jià)格都比藍(lán)氫更便宜。

　　歐洲最大的公用事業(yè)公司Iberdrola SA目前正專注于可再生能源和綠色氫能源，西班牙承諾將在能源轉(zhuǎn)型上投入350億歐元的歐盟刺激計(jì)劃，這一舉措得到了該公司的支持。美國(guó)工業(yè)巨頭康明斯公司5月24日表示，它將與Iberdrola合作，在西班牙中部建立一家生產(chǎn)電解槽的工廠。

　　Iberdrola新風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資主管Diego Diaz Pilas表示:"短期內(nèi)，有機(jī)會(huì)投資藍(lán)氫，但在中期(5--10年)，這將是一項(xiàng)擱淺資產(chǎn)。"

　　裘寅 摘譯自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　Natural gas producers jockey for position as focus shifts to hydrogen

　　The global natural gas industry is in an existential race: either find a way to be part of the next generation of energy or risk getting supplanted by alternatives.

　　BP, Sinopec, Equinor and Royal Dutch Shell are among the producers looking to hydrogen to help secure demand that otherwise may falter as decarbonization speeds up. They want to utilize existing pipelines, storage tankers and fuel supply to make blue hydrogen, a process that uses natural gas but captures the carbon emissions and stores them.

　　The straightest route to net-zero emissions uses hydrogen produced by renewable electricity -- known in the industry as green hydrogen -- but the blue variety is expected to be cheaper until at least 2030 as wind and solar power ramp up. Natural gas companies aiming to lower emissions now and avoid obsolescence next decade are planning to pour billions of dollars into building their blue businesses. At least 15 projects are scheduled to go online through 2027 in the UK, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden and New Zealand.

　　“Green is the destination, but we’ll get there on a blue highway,” said Al Cook, executive vice president for development and production at Stavanger, Norway-based Equinor. “At some point, green hydrogen might well be lower cost than blue, but that will likely not be for at least a decade.”

　　Clean hydrogen could meet a quarter of the world’s energy needs by 2050, with annual sales reaching 630 billion euros ($770 billion). Production of blue needs to be scaled up quickly because projects that don’t come online by 2030 risk becoming uncompetitive, according to BloombergNEF.

　　Right now, hydrogen is expensive to make without expelling greenhouse gases, is difficult to store and is so highly combustible that NASA uses it to propel rockets into space.

　　Still, demand is expected to increase six-fold by 2050 as the transportation, steel and chemicals industries move to reduce pollution, the International Energy Agency said in its road map for net-zero emissions published May 18.

　　Natural gas is used in almost all hydrogen production today. That earns the disdain of ESG investors, environmental groups and governments trying to slow climate change because the most common method, called steam-methane reforming, also produces large amounts of carbon dioxide, which are dumped in the air. The quickest way to remedy that is by capturing the carbon and storing it underground or reusing it. The process has been around for decades, and it’s usually deployed in natural gas plants, fertilizer manufacturing and ethanol production facilities.

　　Gas currently is cheaper than renewable electricity, giving blue hydrogen an advantage even with the added costs of carbon capture and storage.

　　Bolting on carbon capture means blue hydrogen projects can be rolled out at scale from day one, said Paul Bogers, vice president for hydrogen at Shell. The Netherlands-based company is involved in several, including the UK’s Acorn Project and Net Zero Teesside, both scheduled to go online in 2025.

　　Swapping natural gas for hydrogen is one way energy companies could advance their efforts to meet increasingly strict mandates for lowering emissions. Shell previously pledged to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 20% within a decade, but a court in The Hague ordered the company on May 26 to slash them by 45% in the same time period.

　　The urgency for natural gas companies stems from the near-universal backing for green hydrogen, made from water and renewable electricity. The cost of green hydrogen is expected to fall 80% by 2030 and be cheaper than blue in all 28 markets analyzed by BNEF as renewable energy and the electrolyzers using it to make hydrogen both come down in price.

　　Iberdrola SA, Europe’s biggest utility, is focusing on renewable power and green hydrogen, bolstered by Spain’s commitment to spend 35 billion euros of EU stimulus on energy transition. American industrial giant Cummins Inc. said May 24 it will partner with Iberdrola to build a factory in central Spain for making electrolyzers.

　　“In the short term, there are opportunities in which you can apply blue, but in the midterm -- five to 10 years -- it’s going to be a stranded asset,” said Diego Diaz Pilas, head of new ventures at Iberdrola.

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