據(jù)Oil & Gas Journal網(wǎng)站5月13日消息 國(guó)際能源署（IEA）分析稱(chēng)，原油價(jià)格上漲尚未引發(fā)美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油反彈。

　　由于業(yè)務(wù)周期短，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油行業(yè)以其對(duì)價(jià)格信號(hào)的快速反應(yīng)能力而聞名，這種情況在2020年第二季度COVID-19疫情之初再次出現(xiàn)，當(dāng)時(shí)市場(chǎng)崩潰導(dǎo)致運(yùn)營(yíng)商停產(chǎn)130萬(wàn)桶/日，并將年度資本預(yù)算平均削減50%以上。

　　然而，今年盡管WTI價(jià)格已升至疫情前的60美元/桶以上，但國(guó)際能源機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油僅會(huì)小幅上漲。2021年的出口量將為730萬(wàn)桶/日，比2020年初的水平低了近100萬(wàn)桶/日。

　　IEA表示：“自2014-2015年價(jià)格暴跌以來(lái)，越來(lái)越多的美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油運(yùn)營(yíng)商將重點(diǎn)放在資本紀(jì)律和回報(bào)股東上，而不是實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)的雄心壯志上。雖然在降低成本方面取得了相當(dāng)大的成功，但運(yùn)營(yíng)商往往無(wú)法抵制增加活動(dòng)和產(chǎn)量，以利用價(jià)格上漲的機(jī)會(huì)。2021年4月，陸地鉆機(jī)數(shù)量為423臺(tái)（EIA DPR），高于2020年8月的最低點(diǎn)236臺(tái)，但仍比2020年第一季度平均值762臺(tái)（當(dāng)時(shí)WTI為57美元/桶，與2021年第一季度平均價(jià)格基本持平）低339臺(tái)。”

　　2020年第四季度，當(dāng)公司設(shè)定2021年資本和生產(chǎn)目標(biāo)時(shí)，油價(jià)平均比2021年第一季度低15美元/桶（35%）。盡管如此，在第一季度財(cái)報(bào)電話會(huì)議上，各大巨頭對(duì)此前公司層面的指導(dǎo)意見(jiàn)幾乎沒(méi)有改變。就美國(guó)而言，雪佛龍預(yù)計(jì)其二疊紀(jì)盆地產(chǎn)量今年下降5%，而埃克森美孚僅將其美國(guó)產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)了3.75%，這是在不增加計(jì)劃支出的情況下實(shí)現(xiàn)。雷普索爾是美國(guó)上游投資增長(zhǎng)10%的例外（集團(tuán)預(yù)算不變，只是重新分配），但由于該公司試圖降低碳排放強(qiáng)度，該公司專(zhuān)注于天然氣業(yè)務(wù)。與此同時(shí)，IEA追蹤的美國(guó)重點(diǎn)獨(dú)立人士組成的同行團(tuán)體集體幾乎未調(diào)整計(jì)劃。投資將同比增長(zhǎng)5%，但仍將比2019年支出低48%，生產(chǎn)將比2020年水平低3%。

　　王磊 摘譯自 Oil & Gas Journal

　　原文如下：

　　IEA: Higher prices yet to trigger rebound in US shale

　　Higher crude oil prices have yet to trigger rebound in US shale oil, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) analysis.

　　The US shale oil industry has become renowned for its ability to respond swiftly to price signals, thanks to the short-cycle nature of operations. This was seen again at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in second-quarter 2020 when the market crash caused operators to shut in 1.3 million b/d of production and slash annual capital budgets by over 50% (on average).

　　However, this year, despite WTI prices having risen to pre-pandemic levels above $60/bbl, IEA forecasts US shale oil to increase only modestly and reach a 2021 exit rate of 7.3 million b/d. This is almost 1 million b/d below early 2020 levels.

　　“Since the 2014-15 price crash, more and more of the US shale operators have focused on capital discipline and rewarding shareholders ahead of production growth ambitions. While there has been considerable success in driving down costs, operators have often been unable to resist increasing activity and production to take advantage of higher prices. Until now. In April 2021, the land rig count stood at 423 (EIA DPR), higher than the nadir of 236 in August 2020, but still 339 below the 2020 first quarter average of 762 when WTI was $57/bbl, much the same as the 2021 first quarter average price,” IEA said.

　　In fourth-quarter 2020, when companies set 2021 capital and production targets, oil prices averaged $15/bbl (35%) lower than first-quarter 2021. Despite this, in first-quarter earnings calls, the majors made little changes to previous company-level guidance. In relation to the US, Chevron sees its Permian basin volumes declining 5% this year while Exxon made only a 3.75% upward revision to its US production forecast. This is to be achieved without higher planned spend. Repsol is the outlier with a 10% rise in US upstream investment (group budget is unchanged, just reallocated), but focused on gas plays as the company tries to reduce activity carbon intensity. Meanwhile, the IEA-tracked peer group of US-focused independents has collectively left plans almost untouched. Investment will rise 5% y-o-y, but will remain 48% below 2019 spend, and production will hold 3% below 2020 levels.

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