據今日油價5月6日報道，基金經理們表示，由于對經濟強勁反彈和全球原油需求上升的預期，他們對今年油價將繼續大幅上漲的預期越來越有信心。

　　上周，對沖基金增持了兩個半月以來最為看漲的原油期貨頭寸，原油期貨凈多頭頭寸升至6周以來的最高水平。

　　日益增長的人員流動性、經濟的重新開放以及經濟刺激方案都預示著強勁的經濟增長，因此也預示著強勁的石油需求增長。低利率和美聯儲容忍通脹在一段時間內維持在略高于2%的水平，也暗示投資者和投機者將購買更多商品，包括石油，以對沖通脹風險。

　　對沖基金將目光投向印度未來幾個月的經濟復蘇。這促使他們在截至4月27日的一周內連續第三周增加對油價的看漲押注。

　　總體而言，大宗商品價格處于10年來的最高水平。追蹤包括石油在內的23種不同大宗商品價格的彭博商品現貨指數周二創下2011年以來的最高水平。自2020年3月跌至四年低點以來，該指數已上漲逾70%。

　　雖然最近幾周，有關石油進入超級周期的傳言有所平息,但高盛等主要投行仍非常看好石油和大宗商品整體走勢，預計強勁的經濟增長和寬松的貨幣政策將有助于石油需求在未來6個月實現有史以來的最大增幅。高盛預計今年夏天油價將觸及每桶80美元，并預計整個大宗商品市場在未來6個月內將再上漲13.5%。

　　今年夏天，各經濟體重新開放，旅游人數增加，勢必提振全球所有主要燃料的需求，包括汽油、柴油，甚至是航空燃料，不過，航空燃料的復蘇是迄今為止最慢的。

　　Enterprise Products Partners董事兼聯席首席執行官吉姆·蒂格(Jim Teague)在本周早些時候的第一季度財報電話會議上表示:“這是我人生中第一次認為交通堵塞很美妙。盡管經濟復蘇并不統一，但縱觀全球最大的幾個經濟體，需求已經上升，所有跡象都顯示，甚至歐洲也沒有落后太多。”

　　對沖基金經理似乎也對需求將強勁反彈持樂觀態度，他們最近幾周的押注表明，盡管印度和巴西等大型發展中經濟體遭遇挫折，但石油消費將上升。

　　通脹預期也可能吸引更多買家買入石油合約，因為投資者將購買更多大宗商品，以對沖其投資組合中的通脹風險。

　　美聯儲在上周的聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)聲明中表示：“隨著通脹持續低于這一長期目標，將致力于在一段時間內實現通脹適度高于2%，從而使通脹在一段時間內乃至更長時間內平均達到2%。”

　　總而言之，雖然各經濟體的石油需求復蘇并不均衡，但包括美國、歐洲在內的多數經濟體顯示出今年有望大幅反彈的跡象，重燃基金經理對油價仍有漲至每桶70美元以上的信心。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　Hedge Funds Bet On Higher Oil Prices

　　Money managers intimate a growing confidence that oil prices have room to run higher this year, thanks to expectations of a robust economic rebound and rising global demand for crude.

　　Last week, hedge funds added the most bullish positions in the oil complex in more than two and a half months, with the net long in crude oil futures jumping to the highest in six weeks.

　　Rising mobility, the reopening of the economies, and the stimulus packages all point to strong economic growth and consequently, strong oil demand growth. The low-interest rates and the tolerance of the Fed to let inflation run at a moderately above-2-percent level for some time also suggest that investors and speculators will buy more commodities, including oil, as a hedge against inflation.

　　Hedge funds are looking beyond the immediate COVID crisis in India toward economic recovery in the coming months. This has prompted them to add bullish bets on oil for a third consecutive week in the week to April 27.

　　Overall, commodities are at their highest in ten years. The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index tracking prices for 23 different commodities, including oil, hit on Tuesday the highest since 2011. The index has rallied by over 70 percent since it hit a four-year low in March 2020.

　　Although talk of a supercycle in oil has subsided in recent weeks, major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs continue to be very bullish on oil and commodities as a whole, expecting strong economic growth and easy monetary policy to help oil demand to realize its biggest jump ever over the next six months. Goldman sees oil prices hitting $80 a barrel this summer and expects the entire commodity complex to rally by another 13.5 percent over the next six months.

　　Economies reopening and increased travel this summer are set to boost demand for all major fuels globally, including gasoline, diesel, and even jet fuel, which has shown the slowest recovery so far.

　　“For the first time in my life, I think traffic jams are beautiful,” Jim Teague, Director and Co-Chief Executive Officer at Enterprise Products Partners, said on the Q1 earnings call earlier this week.

　　“While economic recoveries aren’t uniform, when you look at the world’s largest economies, demand has moved up, and all indications are that even Europe isn’t far behind,” he added.

　　Optimism that demand will rebound strongly seem to be shared by hedge fund managers, who have shown with their bullish bets in recent weeks that oil consumption will rise despite the setbacks in large developing economies such as India and Brazil.

　　Inflationary expectations are also likely to attract more buyers into oil contracts as investors are set to buy more commodities to hedge against inflation risks in their portfolios.

　　“With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer?term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent,” the Fed said in its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement last week.

　　Oil demand recovery is uneven across economies, but most of those, including the United States, and now Europe, are showing signs that they are on track for a major rebound this year, rekindling confidence among money managers that oil prices still have room to rise beyond $70 a barrel.

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