據彭博社5月7日報道，在世界上任何一條高速公路上行駛，都會看到無數的信息提醒著，石油巨頭的主要產品價格正在上漲。而這個龐大行業的另一個領域——化工產品，正在放大運輸燃料帶來的通脹壓力。
過去一年里，從塑料到油漆的所有建筑材料的成本都大幅上漲。這對埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)和荷蘭皇家殼牌(Royal Dutch Shell Plc)等公司來說是件好事，因為它們的石化部門剛剛實現了多年來的最大利潤水平。
但這對消費者來說是個壞消息，因為從銅到木材等大宗商品的價格已經在試探創紀錄高位。建筑和制造業的主要原料PVC和乙烯等材料的價格已升至至少7年來的最高水平，這是需求漸漸復蘇，而供應中斷等因素影響的結果。
Sanford C Bernstein Ltd的高級研究分析師Oswald Clint表示:“需求來自食品、包裝、醫療用品和防護設備，這些會加劇通脹。”
今年油價穩步上漲，本周倫敦油價接近每桶70美元。原油價格上漲提振了石油巨頭的勘探和生產部門的收益，其石化業務表現確實出眾。
今年一季度，埃克森美孚從化工產品中獲利14億美元，超過了至少自2014年油價超過每桶100美元以來的任何一個季度。殼牌一季度調整后凈利潤為32.3億美元，其中超過五分之一來自化工產品部門，為四年來最高水平。
許多石油公司都是贏家
銷量飆升的不僅僅是石油巨頭。與前一季度相比，印度信實工業(Reliance Industries Ltd.) 2021年一季度增長最快的部門是化工部門。
彭博社分析師邁納(Jason Miner)表示，其他從這股熱潮中脫穎而出的企業還包括巴西的Braskem SA、泰國的Indorama Ventures PCL、美國的Celanese Corp.、Dow Inc.和Lyondellbasell Industries NV，以及沙特的基礎工業公司(Saudi Basic Industries Corp.)。
殼牌首席財務官杰西卡?烏爾(Jessica Uhl) 4月29日對投資者表示:“這是一個關于中間產品實力的故事。”這指的是從基礎石化原料中提取的化合物。隨著經濟復蘇，特別是亞洲經濟的復蘇，需求也在增長。例如，用于醫療設備和乳膠的苯乙烯單體的價格在第一季度超過了1000美元/噸，根據彭博社匯編的數據，2020年，荷蘭鹿特丹港的這種化學品的平均價格約為每噸700美元。
信實工業上周在財報中表示，全球疫苗接種計劃和大規模刺激計劃提振了消費者信心，以及對醫療保健、包裝、耐用消費品、紡織品和汽車的需求。該公司表示，印度對聚合物和聚酯的需求尤其強勁。
德克薩斯州或將面臨困境
這不僅僅是一個關于強勁需求的故事，要知道，化工行業剛剛從幾次重大供應中斷中恢復過來。
去年美國墨西哥灣沿岸連續遭遇颶風襲擊后，2月份出現了異常寒冷的天氣，導致德克薩斯州大部分電網癱瘓，大型石化設施被迫關閉。兩個月后，許多公司仍未恢復滿負荷工作。
得益于德克薩斯州頁巖產業繁榮帶來的液化天然氣(一種廉價的石化原料)業務發展，該地區已成為全球塑料貿易的主導力量。例如，北美是世界上最大的高密度聚乙烯生產地區，從洗發水瓶到滑雪板，高密度聚乙烯被廣泛使用。同時也是最大的PVC出口地。
總部位于維也納的咨詢公司JBC Energy GmbH在一份報告中表示:“大范圍的冰凍天氣，給全球石化市場帶來了沖擊。”報告稱，盡管幾乎所有因天氣原因而關閉的工廠都已恢復運營，但許多化工產品的庫存仍很低，使價格居高不下。
根據數據和分析提供商ICIS的數據，乙烯的價格在3月份達到了每磅59.5美分的7年高點。當月，PVC價格達到創紀錄的1625美元/噸。
就連再生塑料的需求也很高。據標普全球的數據，周三，用于飲料瓶和包裝食品的聚對苯二甲酸乙二醇酯(PET)在歐洲西北部的價格達到了每噸1240歐元(合1495美元)的10年高點。
ICIS北美業務主管杰里米?帕福德(Jeremy Pafford)表示：“如果你能在風暴過后迅速恢復元氣，就會發現市場迫切需要你的產品，且幾乎愿意付出任何代價。”
埃克森美孚首席執行官達倫伍茲(Darren Woods)在與分析師的電話會議上表示，許多化工產品的緊張供應形勢預計將持續到第二季度。Dow和Lyondellbasell表示，它們目前正在銷售所有生產的產品，預計要到第三季度或第四季度才能重新補充庫存。
帕福德指出，為了生產足夠的化工產品來滿足客戶的需求，并開始重新建立庫存，美國需要在沒有任何進一步供應中斷的情況下，度過需求“平淡”的4個月。
颶風季節即將來臨
未來幾個月，隨著許多國家結束出行限制，被禁錮的消費者動用儲蓄或經濟刺激的支票，預計全球支出將大幅增長。與此同時，隨著新冠肺炎新毒株在世界各地引發新的疫情，塑料醫療用品的高需求將繼續存在。
咨詢公司FGE分析師Armaan Ashraf表示："個人防護裝備的需求不太可能很快消退，電子商務、零售、耐用品需求也可能在今年剩余時間里保持強勁。”
王佳晶 摘譯自 彭博社
原文如下：
Big Oil’s Fat Chemical Profits Signal Inflationary Double Whammy
Drive down any highway in the world and you’ll see countless reminders that the price of Big Oil’s primary product is rising. What’s less obvious is how the inflationary pressures from transport fuel are being amplified by another part of this sprawling industry -- chemicals.
The cost of the building blocks for everything from plastics to paint has surged over the past year. That’s great for companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc, whose petrochemical units just earned their biggest profit in years.
But it’s unwelcome news for consumers as commodities from copper to lumber are already testing record highs. The price of materials like PVC and ethylene, staples of construction and manufacturing, have risen to the highest in at least seven years on a combination of pandemic-driven demand, the broader post-Covid recovery and once-in-a generation supply disruptions.
“The demand is coming from food, packaging, medical goods, protective equipment,” said Oswald Clint, senior research analysts at Sanford C Bernstein Ltd. “Does it add to inflation? Yes.”
Oil has advanced steadily this year, coming within a whisker of $70 a barrel in London this week. Yet even as higher crude prices boosted earnings from the oil majors’ exploration and production units, the performance of their petrochemical businesses really stood out.
In the first three months of this year, Exxon made $1.4 billion from chemicals, more than in any quarter since at least 2014, when oil prices were above $100 a barrel. More than a fifth of Shell’s $3.23 billion of adjusted net income for the period came from the division, the highest in four years.
Global Winners
It’s not just the oil majors seeing sales surge. Chemicals was the fastest growing unit at Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd. in the first three months of 2021, compared with the prior quarter.
Other winners from the boom include Brazil’s Braskem SA, Indorama Ventures PCL from Thailand, Celanese Corp., Dow Inc. and Lyondellbasell Industries NV in the U.S., and Saudi Basic Industries Corp., according to Jason Miner, Bloomberg Intelligence chemicals analyst.
“It’s a story of the strength of the intermediates,” Shell chief financial officer Jessica Uhl told investors on April 29, referring to compounds that are derived from basic petrochemical feedstocks. Demand is growing as the economy recovers, notably in Asia, she said.
For example, the price of styrene monomer -- used in medical devices and latex -- surpassed $1,000 a ton in the first quarter, Uhl said. The average price of the chemical at the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands was about $700 a ton in 2020, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The global vaccination drive and large stimulus packages are boosting consumer sentiment and demand from health care, packaging, consumer durables, textiles and automobiles, Reliance said in its earnings presentation last week. Demand for polymers and polyesters has been particularly strong in India, it said.
Trouble in Texas
This isn’t just a story about strong demand. The chemicals industry is also just coming back from several major supply disruptions.
Back-to-back hurricanes on the U.S. Gulf Coast last year were followed by unusually cold weather in February, which knocked out much of the electricity grid in Texas and forced giant petrochemical facilities to shut down. Two months later, many are still not back working at full-capacity.
The region has become a dominant player in the world’s plastics trade thanks to natural gas liquids -- a cheap petrochemical feedstock -- coming out of the Texas shale boom. For example, North America is the world’s biggest producer of high-density polyethylene, used in everything from shampoo bottles to snowboards. It’s also the largest exporter of PVC.
“The big freeze sent a shockwave through global petrochemical markets,” Vienna-based consultant JBC Energy GmbH said in a note. While almost all of the plants that were disabled by the weather have been brought back online, inventories of many chemicals are still low, keeping prices elevated, it said.
The price of ethylene, the chemical building block for everything from plastics to solvents, reached a seven-year high of 59.5 cents a pound in March, according to ICIS, a data and analytics provider. PVC reached a record high of $1,625 a ton that month.
Even recycled plastic is in high demand, with the price of polyethylene terephthalate, or PET, used for drinks bottles and packaged food, reaching a 10-year high of 1,240 euros ($1,495) a metric ton in northwest Europe on Wednesday, according to S&P Global Platts.
“If you were able to get back up and running quickly after the storm” you found a marketplace desperate for your product that “would almost pay any price to get it,” said Jeremy Pafford, head of North America at ICIS.
The tight supply and demand balance for many chemicals looks set to continue in the second quarter, Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said on a call with analysts last week. Dow and Lyondellbasell have said they are currently selling everything they produce and don’t anticipate being able to restock inventories until the third or fourth quarter.
To manufacture enough chemicals to satisfy customer demand and start building up its stockpiles again, the U.S. needs “four dull months” without any further disruption, said Pafford.
But hurricane season is just around the corner, and the global economy does not have time on its side.
The world is expected to see a surge in spending in the coming months as many countries end their lockdowns and cooped-up consumers dip into their savings or stimulus checks. That could happen alongside the continuation of pandemic-driven trends such as high demand for plastic medical goods as new strains of Covid-19 trigger fresh outbreaks around the world.
“Demand for personal protective equipment is unlikely to fade soon,” said Armaan Ashraf, an analyst at consultant FGE. “E-commerce, retail, durable goods demand is also likely to remain strong through the rest of this year as well.”
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