據5月6日Arab News報道，穆迪(Moody 's)估計，如果油價平均為每桶60美元，全球最大石油出口國沙特阿拉伯今年的預算赤字可能降至國內生產總值(GDP)的5%以下。

　　去年，隨著疫情爆發時油價暴跌，以及歐佩克+盟友沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯之間爭奪市場份額的短暫油價大戰，所有產油國的赤字都急劇膨脹。基于石油市場的形勢，沙特王國被迫采取了一些不得人心的緊縮措施，包括將增值稅提高三倍和取消公務員的所謂生活費津貼。

　　據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)估計，2020年沙特財政赤字占國內生產總值(GDP)的比例飆升至11.3%，而2019年為4.5%。

　　數據顯示，今年，由于油價上漲，以及歐佩克+減產計劃在全球需求增長的情況下逐步放松，沙特阿拉伯的赤字占GDP的比例將降至個位數，甚至低于5%。

　　周二的官方數據顯示，沙特阿拉伯在2021年第一季度將赤字縮小至19.7億美元(74億沙特里亞爾)。相比之下，在2020年第二季度石油危機最嚴重的時候，沙特阿拉伯的赤字高達290億美元。

　　穆迪副總裁、高級分析師Alexander Perjessy指出:“今年第一季度政府預算赤字相對于2020年第四季度的下降，主要是由于油價上漲和支出的季節性大幅下降。”

　　IMF在最新報告中稱，預計沙特阿拉伯今年的財政赤字將降至GDP的4.2%。不過，IMF警告稱，沙特阿拉伯需要繼續進行結構性改革，以改善其財政狀況。

　　IMF指出:“增值稅上調、生活費補貼(COLA)取消、加大對資本支出效率的關注以及計劃中的國內能源定價進一步的改革，都是計劃中的財政調整的重要因素，不應逆轉或推遲。”

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 Arab News

　　原文如下：

　　Saudi Arabia Could Slash Deficit To Below 5% Of GDP At $60 Oil

　　The world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, could see its budget deficit drop to below 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year if oil prices average $60 per barrel, according to estimates from Moody’s carried by Arab News.

　　Last year, the deficits of all oil-producing nations ballooned as oil prices collapsed at the onset of the pandemic and during the short-lived oil price war for market share between OPEC+ allies Saudi Arabia and Russia. The Kingdom was forced by oil market circumstances to implement some unpopular austerity measures, including a triple increase in value-added tax (VAT) and the cancellation of so-called cost-of-living allowances for civil servants.

　　As per estimates from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Saudi Arabia’s fiscal deficit soared to 11.3 percent of GDP in 2020, compared to a deficit of 4.5 percent of GDP in 2019.

　　This year, due to the higher oil prices and the gradual easing of the OPEC+ production cuts amid growing global demand, Saudi Arabia is set to bring its deficit to a single-digit percentage of GDP, and even below 5 percent, according to Moody’s.

　　Saudi Arabia narrowed its deficit to US$1.97 billion (7.4 billion Saudi riyals) in the first quarter of 2021, official data showed on Tuesday.

　　To compare, at the height of the oil crisis in the second quarter of 2020, Saudi Arabia’s deficit surged to as much as US$29 billion.

　　“The decline in the government budget deficit during the first quarter of this year relative to the fourth quarter of 2020 is mostly due to higher oil prices and a large seasonal drop in spending,” Alexander Perjessy, vice president, senior analyst at Moody’s, told Arab News.

　　The IMF, for its part, expects Saudi Arabia’s fiscal deficit to decline to 4.2 percent of GDP this year, the fund said in its latest report on the Kingdom earlier this week.

　　The fund, however, warned that Saudi Arabia needs to continue with structural reforms to improve its finances.

　　“The VAT rate increase, the removal of the Cost-of-Living Allowances (COLA), the increased focus on the efficiency of capital spending, and planned further domestic energy price reforms are all important contributors to the planned fiscal adjustment and should not be reversed or delayed,” the IMF noted.

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