據(jù)天然氣新聞2021年4月27日新加坡報(bào)道，亞洲的液化天然氣（LNG）需求受到印度疫情惡化的影響，預(yù)計(jì)這將抑制天然氣和電力需求，現(xiàn)貨LNG貨物已經(jīng)受到影響，而日本宣布進(jìn)入緊急狀態(tài)，其LNG進(jìn)口量已經(jīng)徘徊在一年前的水平。
盡管印度和日本對(duì)LNG市場的不利影響將被其他地區(qū)的需求強(qiáng)勁增長所抵消，但亞洲現(xiàn)貨LNG價(jià)格仍維持在8美元/百萬英國熱量單位以上，但隨著印度形勢的進(jìn)一步惡化，LNG需求下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)大大增加。
印度買家通常每周占3到4船LNG現(xiàn)貨貨物，但自4月初以來，由于多個(gè)邦都處于封鎖狀態(tài)，現(xiàn)貨需求已有所減少，最終用戶不太可能授予此前發(fā)布的招標(biāo)，或?yàn)?月和6月交付的LNG進(jìn)行現(xiàn)貨購買。
LNG交易商說，“印度對(duì)LNG現(xiàn)貨的需求已經(jīng)完全枯竭。國內(nèi)需求不確定。與此同時(shí)，夏季的價(jià)格和我們通常在冬季看到的一樣。印度的LNG再氣化量將以兩位數(shù)的速度下降。”
一家國有天然氣公司的高官表示：“由于大多數(shù)行業(yè)都受到了COVID-19的影響，印度國內(nèi)天然氣需求比正常水平至少下降了10%。”他補(bǔ)充說，正常情況下，印度的天然氣年需求量約為2200萬至2300萬噸。
據(jù)交易商稱，印度國有巴拉特石油公司并未在4月20日就5月和6月的兩批LNG交付發(fā)出購買招標(biāo)。印度私有的信誠工業(yè)公司正在進(jìn)行招標(biāo)，將于4月27日結(jié)束，6月1日至6日向達(dá)赫LNG終端交貨，市場參與者正在密切關(guān)注招標(biāo)結(jié)果。
一家印度終端用戶表示，由于預(yù)計(jì)下游電力和天然氣需求會(huì)下降，可能會(huì)取消近期購買。該終端用戶通常每月購買一到兩船LNG貨物。這位終端用戶表示：“未來可能更大程度上是減少，這取決于封鎖的情況。”他補(bǔ)充稱，目前尚未發(fā)布不可抗力通知或延期請(qǐng)求。
LNG交易商稱，本周人們普遍擔(dān)心終端庫存將達(dá)到滿負(fù)荷，或“達(dá)頂”，但當(dāng)聯(lián)系到終端運(yùn)營商時(shí)，他們拒絕證實(shí)這一趨勢。
一家LNG供應(yīng)商表示，盡管當(dāng)?shù)叵拗撇幌袢ツ昴敲磭?yán)格，但現(xiàn)貨需求下降可能壓低印度現(xiàn)貨LNG價(jià)格，并進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大JKM-WIM液化天然氣的價(jià)差。4月26日，JKM-WIM價(jià)差為40美分/百萬英國熱量單位。
李峻 編譯自 天然氣新聞
原文如下：
India's pandemic, Japan's restrictions dampen Asia's spot LNG demand
Asia's LNG demand has been dampened by the worsening pandemic in India, that is expected to curb gas and power demand, with spot cargoes already impacted, and the declaration of emergency in Japan, where imports are already hovering near year-ago levels.
While the adverse impact of India and Japan on the LNG market will be offset by stronger growth in other regions, and spot Asian LNG prices remain supported at more than $8/MMBtu, downside risks have increased especially with the deteriorating situation in India.
Indian buyers typically account for three to four spot LNG cargoes per week, but spot demand has been curtailed since the start of April as lockdowns spread across several states, and end-users were unlikely to award previously issued tenders, or make spot purchases for deliveries in May and June.
"Demand for spot LNG cargoes has completely dried up. Domestic demand is uncertain. And at the same time, prices in the summer season are what we see normally during the winter. I would think regasification volumes are down by double-digit levels," an India-based LNG trader said.
A senior official at a state gas company said: "Domestic demand for gas is down by at least 10% from the usual levels since most of the sectors are feeling the impact of COVID-19." He added that India's gas demand during normal times was around 22 million-23 million mt/year.
State-run Bharat Petroleum Corp did not award an April 20 buy tender for two May and June deliveries, according to traders. Privately-held Reliance Industries has an ongoing tender, which closes April 27, for a June 1-6 delivery into Dahej LNG terminal, and market participants are watching its results closely.
One Indian end-user, that typically buys one or two LNG cargoes a month, said it might cancel near-term purchases in anticipation of lower downstream power and gas demand. "Going forward it might be more [of a fall] depending on the lockdown situation," the end-user said, adding that no force majeure notices, or deferment requests has been issued.
LNG traders cited widespread concerns of terminal inventories reaching full capacity, or 'tank-top', this week, but when contacted, terminal operators declined to confirm this trend.
While local restrictions are not as stringent as last year, the fall in spot demand could depress Indian spot LNG prices and widen the JKM-WIM LNG spread even further, according to an LNG supplier. On April 26,It had assessed the JKM-WIM price differential at 40 cents/MMBtu.
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